According to the latest MLCC industry analysis from TrendForce, the ongoing AI arms race among global cloud service providers (CSPs) is intensifying. The widespread adoption of in-house ASIC accelerator platforms, which heavily utilize small-sized, high-capacitance, and high-temperature-resistant premium specialty MLCCs, is rapidly concentrating demand onto a limited number of top-tier specifications. However, with supplier expansion lagging, the risk of a structural shortage in the second half of 2026 is becoming a significant concern.

TrendForce notes that frequent design changes during the final qualification phase for next-generation AI accelerator platforms have led to substantial upward revisions in high-end MLCC usage. For instance, during the verification of AMD's MI450, MLCCs replaced all aluminum electrolytic and tantalum capacitors in the bill of materials (BOM). This caused the usage of 47µF 2.5V X6S 0402 MLCCs to surge from 1,440 units per board to 10,544 units—an increase of 632%. Similarly, NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform has increased its demand for 100µF 4V X6S 0805 MLCCs, raising the quantity from 320 to 500 units per board.

Entering the latter half of 2026, major ASIC platforms such as Google's TPU V8t/i, AWS's Trainium4, and Meta's MTIA 400/450 are expected to ramp up production volumes significantly, pushing MLCC demand to a peak. However, supply expansion is clearly failing to keep pace with this demand explosion.

Although Murata is set to begin mass production of high-specification new products like 47µF 2.5V X6S 0402 and 100µF 2.5V X6S 0603 by the end of 2025, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) following suit in March of the next year and Taiyo Yuden and Kyocera also joining in subsequently, these specifications carry extremely high technical barriers. Each manufacturer continues to face severe challenges with yield rates, effectively constraining available capacity. Furthermore, Murata's new Izumo plant is not expected to reach full-speed production volume until 2027, making it difficult to provide timely support for the upcoming demand peak.

Tightening supply-demand signals are already emerging. The book-to-bill ratio for leading Japanese and Korean manufacturers has been increasing month-over-month since April 2026, with lead times for some high-capacitance X6S items extending from eight weeks to as long as twenty weeks.

First-tier CSPs with established long-term supply agreements (LTAs) will be prioritized for capacity allocation. In contrast, ODM and system manufacturers that have not yet secured their supply may face dual pressures of spot market price premiums and delivery delays.

Multiple demand forces are projected to converge and concentrate from the end of the third quarter into the beginning of the fourth quarter. The supply gap for high-end MLCCs risks transitioning from a latent concern to an actual physical shortage.

ODM manufacturers are advised to proactively advance strategic material procurement for the third quarter and elevate their safety stock levels to mitigate potential supply shocks in the fourth quarter.