Official data released on April 15 showed that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 4% year-on-year in March, falling short of the expected 4.6% rise, with the previous figure revised from 3.4% to 3.4%. On a monthly basis, PPI rose 0.5%, below the forecast of 1.1%, and the prior reading was adjusted from 0.7% to 0.5%. Core PPI increased 3.8% year-over-year, missing the 4.1% expectation, while the previous figure was revised from 3.9% to 3.8%. Month-on-month, core PPI grew 0.1%, lower than the anticipated 0.5%, with the prior figure revised down from 0.5% to 0.3%. Analysts noted that both the annual and monthly rates for overall and core PPI in March were significantly below market expectations. Despite a sharp rise in energy prices, the increase was less than projected: refined oil products surged (gasoline +15.7%, diesel +42.0%, etc.), but natural gas plummeted 51.7%, partially offsetting the overall impact. Services unexpectedly remained flat (0.0% month-on-month), and with this sector accounting for about 68% of the weighting, it was the primary reason for the weaker-than-expected data. One contributing factor was a decline in trade margins, as retailers absorbed some energy costs rather than passing them on. Transportation prices rose 1.3%, but with a weight of only 5%, it was insufficient to fill the gap. Food prices fell 0.3%, also dragging down the overall figure.

Separately, Japan's Finance Minister explicitly requested the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry to refrain from commenting on monetary policy, emphasizing that the use of specific policy tools falls within the legal authority of the Bank of Japan. The Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry had previously suggested in public that interest rate hikes could be a means to address inflation and yen depreciation. These remarks, seen as overstepping jurisdictional boundaries, triggered market volatility and prompted the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister to intervene jointly to maintain a unified government stance on macroeconomic policy. In response to the controversy sparked by the cabinet member's comments, the Finance Minister reiterated at a regular press conference that while the government maintains close cooperation with the central bank, it must strictly respect the policy autonomy legally granted to the Bank of Japan. She pointed out that as a cabinet member not responsible for financial affairs, the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry should not interfere in discussions on interest rate decisions.

Key data to watch today include the U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index for April, the U.S. Import Price Index month-on-month for March, and Canada's Manufacturing Sales month-on-month for February.

Gold / U.S. Dollar Gold edged higher yesterday, reaching a fresh four-day peak, with the spot price currently trading around $1820. Apart from continued support from diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, the U.S. dollar index's sustained weakness—pressured by soft economic data and a cooling of safe-haven demand—also contributed significantly to gold's ascent. Resistance is seen near $1900 today, with support around $1750.

U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen yesterday, breaching the 159.00 level to hit a three-day low, with the pair currently trading around 158.90. The primary factor weighing on the exchange rate was the U.S. dollar index's drop to a six-week low, driven by reduced safe-haven demand and disappointing economic data. Additionally, concerns over potential further intervention by the Bank of Japan in the currency market exerted downward pressure. Resistance is anticipated near 160.00 today, while support lies around 158.00.

U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar The U.S. dollar declined against the Canadian dollar yesterday, touching a three-week low, with the pair currently trading near 1.3770. The main pressure came from a softer U.S. dollar, which was undermined by weak economic indicators and reduced expectations for Fed rate hikes. However, a pullback in crude oil prices limited the pair's downside. Resistance is eyed around 1.3850 today, with support near 1.3700.