On April 21, our analysis for the previous Monday suggested that Iran's renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over negotiation prospects, driving oil prices and the US dollar to rebound from one-month lows, thereby capping the rebound in gold. Short-term technical indicators also pointed to a need for a gold rebound, although significant resistance was evident overhead. Consequently, our operational advice was to monitor support at $4,755, followed by $4,700, while observing the breakthrough situation at the resistance level of $4,800, and subsequently at $4,860 and $4,900.
Looking at the subsequent price movement, gold opened the Asian session on Monday with a gap down and continued lower, hitting a low of $4,737. The price quickly stabilized and rebounded, reaching $4,814 before encountering resistance and pulling back. After finding support at $4,779, gold continued its rebound attempt upon the US market open, rising to $4,827 before facing renewed resistance. Following another dip that found footing at $4,792, gold fluctuated and recovered. This rebound extended into Tuesday's opening, with gold briefly surging to $4,833 before meeting resistance; it is currently trading around $4,828. Overall, gold has stabilized and rebounded, but faces clear short-term resistance, maintaining a pattern of high-level consolidation.
Analysis indicates that following the US's comprehensive blockade of Iranian port tankers last week, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and refused to participate in the US-proposed second round of talks in Pakistan, demanding the US first lift the maritime blockade. The US attempt to force Iran's compliance through dual extreme pressure—military and economic—intensified core contradictions between the two sides, fueling market concerns. This led to oil prices gapping higher on Monday. Rising oil prices, by boosting high inflation expectations, dampened prospects for interest rate cuts, creating a bearish factor for gold, which consequently gapped lower at Monday's open. However, subsequent continued US releases of optimistic information, Pakistan's statement that preparations for the second round of talks were fully complete, and Iran's indication that it had decided to continue negotiations—albeit with the lifting of the blockade as an absolute precondition—helped ease market concerns. The subsequent retreat in oil prices provided support for gold's rebound. Looking ahead, US-Iran negotiations remain a key market focus requiring close attention.
On the daily chart, gold is maintaining high-level fluctuations after its rebound met resistance. The weekly chart shows four consecutive positive closes, indicating relatively strong short-term momentum. For support levels, attention can be paid to the $4,792 level, where the price repeatedly found support after Monday's rally stalled. After stabilizing above this level, gold made further short-term advances. The next key support is the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart at $4,760, which also aligns with the middle Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. For resistance, focus is on the upper Bollinger Band on the 4-hour chart at $4,860, near the weekly MA10 average, followed by the psychological $4,900 level, which is near last week's rebound high. The 5-day moving average golden cross is slowing slightly, the MACD indicator maintains a golden cross trending upward, the KDJ indicator shows a slight dead cross, and the RSI indicator's golden cross is edging higher. Short-term technical signals suggest gold has rebound potential, but faces clear near-term resistance.
Intraday gold outlook: Iran's stance has shown some flexibility, stating it has decided to continue talks contingent on the US lifting the blockade. This has alleviated market worries. Oil prices opened higher but retreated, paring gains, which in turn supports gold's rebound. Operationally, a range-trading approach is suggested. Support levels to watch are $4,792 and $4,760, while resistance levels are $4,860 and $4,900.