The global crude oil market is facing a supply surplus, with the Americas—particularly the U.S.—experiencing the most pronounced imbalance.

For much of 2026, the futures curve for the U.S. benchmark W&T Offshore (WTI) crude has remained in a "contango" structure, where forward contracts trade at a premium to near-term contracts, signaling weak immediate demand. Elevated U.S. crude exports further underscore ample supply, with government data showing October shipments hitting their highest level since July 2024.

In contrast, the futures curve for the global benchmark Brent crude has largely flattened beyond March. This divergence reflects varying degrees of oversupply across regional markets.

The flat curve suggests similarly sluggish demand for prompt Brent crude. Weakness is emerging in the North Sea market, while the Brent-Dubai EFS spread turned negative this week, indicating a discount.

Market observers widely anticipate a supply glut next year. OPEC, which has long maintained that oil demand remains robust, now projects a "supply surplus" in Q3—a sharp reversal from its earlier forecast of a "supply deficit." Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency predicts record oversupply in 2026.

"The global market is expected to remain in a 'mild surplus' from this quarter into the next," said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based analytics firm Vanda Insights. "The forward curve may sustain a contango structure, but I don’t expect it to deepen significantly."