Abstract

Rigetti Computing will release its first quarter 2026 results on May 11, 2026 Post Market, and this preview outlines consensus revenue, profitability trajectories, and the key stock drivers that investors will monitor into the print.

Market Forecast

For the first quarter of 2026, Rigetti Computing’s internal and market-tracked projections point to total revenue of 3.97 million US dollars, representing 55.62% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS expected at -0.04, a 7.58% year-over-year decline; EBIT is projected at a loss of 20.37 million US dollars, down 24.02% year over year. No formal gross margin or net profit margin guidance for the quarter has been provided in the latest available data.

In terms of business mix, collaborative research and professional services remains central to the company’s monetization. Looking ahead, the company continues to emphasize performance improvements and customer programs around higher-fidelity systems, which should support services activity and utilization. The most promising near-term segment for incremental contribution is access to quantum computing systems delivered via cloud and direct APIs, currently smaller by revenue but positioned to benefit from improved device performance; the latest disclosed segment revenue was 0.41 million US dollars, while year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Rigetti Computing reported revenue of 1.87 million US dollars, a 17.85% year-over-year decline, gross profit margin of 34.90%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of 18.21 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS of -0.03, an improvement of 95.52% year over year; net profit margin was not disclosed. Adjusted EPS came in slightly better than expected, beating the tracked estimate by approximately 0.003 per share, while revenue missed by 0.47 million US dollars versus the tracked estimate.

On business execution, the company’s cost discipline and operating efficiency were evident in the EPS trend despite the smaller revenue base. In terms of business mix, collaborative research and other professional services contributed 6.68 million US dollars and access to quantum computing systems contributed 0.41 million US dollars in the latest disclosed breakdown; year-over-year comparisons by segment were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business momentum

The central driver this quarter remains collaborative research and professional services, which has historically represented the largest share of recognized revenue and offers the clearest route to near-term monetization. With revenue expected at 3.97 million US dollars for the first quarter of 2026, the implied resurgence from last quarter’s 1.87 million US dollars suggests that existing programs and new awards may be ramping back toward a more normalized run-rate. The services-heavy mix tends to support gross margin at modest levels in line with the prior quarter’s 34.90%, though no margin guidance has been issued; investors will focus on whether the revenue mix remains tilted toward higher-margin services or begins to incorporate more usage-based access revenue.

Operating lines will draw scrutiny given the projected EBIT loss of 20.37 million US dollars, which is expected to widen year over year by 24.02%. The combination of an improved revenue base and a larger operating loss suggests that the company is still prioritizing R&D and system performance milestones, and the degree of expense leverage will be a focal point in management’s commentary. With adjusted EPS projected at approximately -0.04, a 7.58% year-over-year decline, the earnings setup hinges on whether the company can deliver revenue at or above the 3.97 million US dollars mark while controlling discretionary spend sufficiently to offset higher development and testing costs.

Given the services concentration, management’s discussion of bookings cadence, backlog conversion, and milestone timing will be pivotal. A stronger-than-expected pace in research contracts or government programs could sustain the double-digit percentage growth implied in the revenue forecast. Conversely, timing shifts on milestones would manifest quickly in quarterly results, so any color on conversion and invoicing schedules will be closely parsed.

Most promising segment

Access to quantum computing systems remains the smaller revenue line at 0.41 million US dollars in the latest disclosed breakdown, but it is a lever for higher incremental growth if device performance improves and utilization rises. Recent company communications indicated a change in timing for the broad release of a new 108-qubit system as the organization targeted better system performance; investors will look for updates on performance metrics, practical benchmarks, and customer access pathways across cloud and API channels. Even without formal guidance, a positive update on system fidelity and stability should translate over time into higher paid usage, especially if workloads that require longer coherence and lower error rates become viable.

The strategic objective this year is to align access revenue growth with demonstrable improvements in device capability. That means the near-term revenue opportunity is likely to be gated by when performance targets are hit and how quickly customers can adopt the updated devices for recurring workloads. In the absence of disclosed segment-level year-over-year figures, the market will use total revenue growth of 55.62% year over year as a proxy and look for qualitative confirmation that access revenue can outgrow services once newer systems are generally available and stable.

From a stock perspective, investors tend to reward tangible proof points that system performance is moving along the expected trajectory. Statements about higher-fidelity results, clearer timeframes for wider access, and early customer outcomes can influence expectations for second-half trajectory. Evidence that access revenue is scaling—through either higher utilization or broader availability—would help diversify the revenue base and improve visibility.

What could drive the stock this quarter

Three factors are likely to dominate the equity narrative into and after the print. The first is top-line execution against the 3.97 million US dollars revenue projection. Delivering near or above that mark, combined with stable or improving gross margin versus the last reported 34.90%, would reinforce the recovery narrative from last quarter’s softer 1.87 million US dollars. Any positive surprise in services bookings or milestone conversion would be taken as a signal that demand and program cadence remain healthy.

The second is operating discipline relative to the projected EBIT loss of 20.37 million US dollars. Investors will look for signs of cost containment and a roadmap to reduce cash burn without impairing roadmap milestones. Commentary on how spending aligns with upcoming performance and product availability milestones will shape expectations for operating leverage in the year’s back half. If adjusted EPS trends materially better than the implied -0.04, that would point to expense control or top-line upside; if it trends worse, the market may infer higher investment intensity or milestone shifts.

The third is technical progress and availability timelines for the newest systems. The company has previously signaled a push to enhance performance before broadening access to upgraded hardware. Any update that confirms better fidelity, longer coherence, or improved error characteristics would bolster confidence in future access revenue growth. Conversely, if broader availability timelines slip again without new performance metrics, sentiment could cool as the market may push out expectations for usage-led scale. With analysts broadly constructive into the event, the stock’s near-term reaction will be particularly sensitive to the balance between revenue execution and tangible technical milestones.

Analyst Opinions

Recent analyst commentary skews decisively bullish. Over the past few months, there have been multiple Buy reiterations versus one Hold, implying an approximate split of 86% bullish against 14% neutral-to-cautious among captured notes. The majority view emphasizes constructive expectations for the company’s roadmap and the potential for revenue reacceleration as performance milestones unlock more commercial activity.

Mizuho Securities has reiterated a Buy rating across multiple recent notes, with price targets reported in a range that includes 33.00 US dollars and 50.00 US dollars. Their stance underscores confidence that near-term milestones can support sustained customer programs and that the company’s roadmap can translate to expanding commercial use cases. The emphasis from Mizuho’s recent updates points to continued execution on the technical and product fronts as the key to unlocking revenue scaling and ultimately improving operating leverage.

Cantor Fitzgerald has reiterated a Buy rating with a 30.00 US dollars price target, reinforcing the constructive setup into the first quarter print. Their outlook suggests that market attention should center on performance updates and the revenue cadence implied by services activity and access utilization. A delivery of revenue close to 3.97 million US dollars combined with clarity on performance-driven access growth would align with Cantor’s supportive stance.

Needham has maintained a Buy rating and highlighted the potential embedded in the company’s roadmap and customer interest. Their positioning is consistent with the broader bullish camp that expects performance improvements to catalyze a shift toward more usage-led revenue as systems become more capable and reliable. Benchmark also maintained a Buy rating in the period, signaling confidence that the current program mix and upcoming milestones can support growth and, over time, better operating scalability.

Alliance Global Partners reiterated a Buy rating as well, albeit with a comparatively lower price target in the captured period, indicating differing risk-reward calibrations across the bullish cohort. Even with the variance in targets, the common thread in these Buy ratings is the expectation that technical progress will enable recurring revenue expansion while services and research programs sustain the near-term top line. The minority view of Hold from another major brokerage signals a preference to see more tangible evidence of margin and access-scaling progress before moving to a more constructive rating, but it remains the outlier among captured opinions.

Putting the majority view in context, analysts appear prepared to underwrite near-term operating losses if the company demonstrates clear progress on performance metrics, availability timelines, and revenue execution against the 3.97 million US dollars projection. To support the bullish case, investors will look for: confirmation that services revenue is tracking to plan; early indications that access volumes can expand as newer systems become more broadly available; and an expense trajectory that balances investment with a credible path toward lower cash burn. Clear communication on these fronts could validate the 55.62% year-over-year revenue growth expectation and maintain the favorable rating skew into subsequent quarters.