Former President Donald Trump stated on Monday, March 16, that he believes he would have the "honor of taking over Cuba" and added that the U.S. could "do whatever it wants" with the country. He declared that "Cuba's final days are here" and expressed confidence in having this "privilege." These remarks signify a sharp escalation in Trump's stance on Cuba, moving from previous ambiguous talk of a "friendly takeover" to openly discussing "taking over" and acting unilaterally, drawing significant international attention.
In the short term, geopolitical risk premiums in Latin America have risen. During Tuesday's Asian trading hours, spot gold saw a fluctuating rebound, trading near $5,030 per ounce with an intraday gain of approximately 0.5%.
When pressed to clarify what "taking over" specifically entailed, Trump indicated that the U.S. might intervene in "some form." He stated, "Whether it's liberating it, taking it over—frankly, I think I can do whatever I want with it. They are a very weak country right now." This has been interpreted as Trump hinting at potential military, economic, or political intervention, including possibilities like direct control or regime change, using notably assertive language.
Just last Friday, Trump had suggested that a "friendly takeover" of Cuba might be feasible. However, within a few days, his rhetoric shifted dramatically to phrases like "Cuba's final days are here," "honor of taking over," and "do whatever I want." This rapid escalation reflects a hardening stance within Trump's circle regarding Cuba, possibly influenced by recent U.S.-Israel military actions against Iran, suggesting a belief that similar high-pressure tactics could be applied in Latin America.
Cuba is currently experiencing severe fuel shortages and extreme economic weakness, which Trump views as an opportune moment for intervention. Recent U.S. pressure has forced Venezuela to halt crucial oil and economic support to Cuba, leading to a gradual depletion of Cuba's fuel supplies. The Cuban economy heavily depends on cheap Venezuelan oil, and losing this source has rapidly worsened electricity shortages, paralyzed transport, and intensified food crises.
Trump's team perceives Cuba as being in a "very weak" state, presenting an ideal window for applying pressure or intervention. The Cuban government has not yet issued an official response to Trump's latest comments, but internal pressures are reportedly reaching a critical level.
Trump's "takeover" remarks significantly increase the risk of direct U.S. intervention in Cuba, which could involve escalated economic blockades, support for opposition groups, or even limited military actions. Latin American nations are generally on high alert, concerned that the U.S. may be reviving a hegemonic approach toward what it considers its "backyard." A further collapse of Cuba could trigger large-scale refugee flows and regional instability.
Investors are advised to monitor several factors: whether the U.S. links its Cuba strategy with issues involving Iran and Venezuela, forming a multi-front high-pressure approach; the strength of collective responses from Latin American countries; and the internal stability of the Cuban regime. In the short term, rising geopolitical risk premiums in Latin America are further exacerbating uncertainty in energy and supply chains. Gold, as the ultimate safe-haven asset, typically benefits first when geopolitical conflicts escalate. If markets perceive that the U.S. might take military action or pursue regime change in Cuba, gold is likely to attract immediate safe-haven inflows.