Apple's New Wave of "Form Factor Revolution": Reshaping Supply Chain Valuations

Deep News
11/10

Apple is expected to roll out a series of products with significant design overhauls in the coming years, a move seen as a fresh catalyst for revaluing its supply chain. According to a Goldman Sachs report, starting with the highly anticipated foldable iPhone in 2026, Apple’s product line revamp could trigger a massive device replacement cycle, offering revaluation opportunities for undervalued supply chain firms.

Goldman Sachs analysts expressed optimism about Apple’s supply chain prospects in a report released on the 10th. The report forecasts that Apple will drive consecutive form factor innovations—from slimmer models in 2025 to foldable iPhones in 2026 and a 20th-anniversary iPhone in 2027. This strategy aims not only to boost end-market demand but also to increase component value and redistribute order share to leading suppliers.

For investors, the immediate takeaway is that many core Apple suppliers currently trade at historically low valuations. The report notes most of these companies have forward P/E ratios below their three-year averages, suggesting the market may be overly pessimistic about smartphone saturation while underestimating growth potential from new designs.

At the heart of this transformation are tech-leading suppliers and providers of critical components like foldable displays. As devices become thinner and more complex, Apple will rely more on top-tier suppliers for customized parts, directly boosting their revenue and margins—especially for manufacturers of new components like hinges.

**The Foldable Wave: Echoing the iPhone X Cycle** The foldable smartphone market is heating up, setting the stage for Apple’s entry. Per IDC, global foldable shipments surged 22% YoY and 144% QoQ to 8M units in Q3 2025, with penetration rising from 1.5% in 2024 to 2.5%. Goldman predicts Apple’s foldable iPhone will accelerate this trend, projecting shipments of 11M and 27M units in 2026 and 2027 under baseline scenarios, or up to 35M and 66M in bullish cases. Analysts liken the potential impact to the iPhone X’s success in 2017, which captured 51% of new-model sales despite its premium price.

High-end foldables also favor Apple. In Q3 2025, the global foldable ASP rose 12% YoY to $1,393, with Samsung dominating 60% share at $1,511 ASP—proof of consumer willingness to pay for premium brands.

**Valuation Gap Signals Revaluation Opportunity** Despite growth prospects, the market hasn’t fully priced in Apple’s supply chain potential. Goldman’s Allen Chang notes concerns over smartphone saturation drive caution but believes upcoming design shifts will spur a replacement cycle, improving fundamentals and supporting valuation upside. A historical parallel is Hon Hai Precision, which hit a 20x P/E peak during the iPhone X’s form factor shift in 2017. Similar revaluation potential may emerge for key suppliers.

**Supplier Highlights:** - **Hon Hai Precision**: As Apple’s long-term assembly partner, Hon Hai’s R&D, scale, and vertical integration could secure higher component value and share. Foldable iPhones alone may lift its consumer electronics revenue by 17% in Goldman’s bullish case. - **Newmax Global**: A top hinge supplier expanding into foldable phones, with its Suzhou plant set for Q1 2026 completion. Hinges—a critical, high-margin component—position Newmax for major orders. - **Largan Precision**: The lens leader stands to benefit from foldables’ demand for thinner, advanced camera modules. - **AAC Technologies**: A leader in acoustics and haptics, poised to regain share as slimmer designs require precision components. Its existing hinge supply to Chinese brands adds upside. - **Zhen Ding Tech**: A key Apple FPCB supplier, with foldables expected to boost FPCB value by 70%. - **Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)**: Apple’s chip partner will solidify its lead as iPhones adopt its N2 node (29% higher ASP than N3) from 2026, with foldables likely using TSMC’s WMCM packaging for added value.

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