On Thursday evening, Microsoft AI CEO Mustafa Suleyman stated that "most tasks" performed by computer-based professionals such as lawyers, accountants, project managers, and marketers will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months. AI disruption expectations are impacting various sectors of U.S. stocks like dominoes, while commodity market liquidity is also tightening, leading to a sharp decline in silver prices. As of the time of writing, the main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has fallen below the 20,000 mark again, with an intraday drop exceeding 9%.

Although precious metals have released most of their risks before the Spring Festival, they still face severe tests during the holiday period. In terms of data, the U.S. fourth-quarter preliminary real GDP figure released on February 20 will be a key focus during the holiday. Market expectations suggest that due to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. fourth-quarter real GDP growth rate will decline by at least 1.5%, with the preliminary quarter-on-quarter annualized rate projected at 2.9%, a significant drop from the previous reading of 4.4%. If the data decline exceeds expectations, against the backdrop of persistent inflation and the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts until early 2026, the market may reinforce trades anticipating the U.S. economy falling into stagflation. Investors should remain vigilant against sharp corrections in risk asset prices and the re-emergence of dollar liquidity risk premiums.

Geopolitically, the situation between Russia and Ukraine continues with fighting and negotiations occurring simultaneously, while the first round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran has yielded no substantial progress. During the talks, the U.S. increased its military presence to strengthen deterrence in the Middle East, and former President Trump formally signed an order authorizing additional tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from countries trading with Iran (not yet implemented). These actions could potentially escalate U.S.-Iran tensions, threatening global energy security and financial market stability. Considering that silver volatility is unlikely to decrease during the holiday but the trend remains unclear, holding positions over the holiday requires caution.