Aviation stocks showed broad recovery. As of writing, AIR CHINA (00753) rose 2.8% to HK$6.6; CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) gained 2.05% to HK$5.48; CHINA EAST AIR (00670) climbed 1.69% to HK$4.81; MEILAN AIRPORT (00357) increased 1.06% to HK$2.85.

On the news front, China's crude oil futures (contract 2601) hit a high of 466.2 yuan/barrel on November 18, up over 7% from the low a month ago. Haitong Futures noted that while oversupply pressures may naturally drive oil prices lower, geopolitical risks—including sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy infrastructure—continue injecting uncertainty, partially offsetting downward pressure. This is expected to sustain high volatility in oil prices.

Guotai Haitong Research highlighted that the seasonal impact of late October was milder than usual, with airlines maintaining high load factors and fares rising year-on-year. Domestic business travel remained active, while international routes saw strong demand and pricing. Estimates suggest September-October international load factors exceeded 80%, up 3 percentage points YoY, driving fare growth beyond market expectations.

Zhongtai Securities pointed out that favorable oil prices and exchange rates are supporting a "strong off-season" trend in Q4. The aviation sector is projected to significantly reduce losses in Q4 2025, with profit potential likely to emerge in 2026.