Yesterday, Shanghai nickel staged a strong rebound, with the main contract 2601 opening at 116,600 yuan per ton and closing at 121,360 yuan per ton, marking a gain of 4.55%. The nickel price has surged for two consecutive trading days, reaching its highest level in two months.

The continuous rise in nickel prices is primarily driven by expectations of tightening supply from Indonesia. Last week, the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) stated that the Indonesian government proposed in its "2026 Work Plan and Budget" to reduce next year's production by 34% compared to this year's total, lowering it to 250 million tons. Additionally, the association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel commodities in early 2026. Sources indicate that associated minerals like cobalt may be subject to royalties in the future as they could be classified as independent minerals. These two developments have reinforced expectations of supply contraction on the nickel mining side and rising costs, leading to a strong rebound in nickel prices from the bottom.

However, it is worth noting that the accuracy of these two policies still needs confirmation, as the Indonesian government has not officially announced them, leaving room for potential modifications or reversals. Furthermore, from a fundamental perspective, downstream stainless steel consumption is in a seasonal lull, and Shanghai nickel inventories continue to accumulate. The sustainability of the nickel price rebound remains uncertain.

Risk Warning: Monitor macroeconomic policies, local Indonesian policy impacts, and downstream consumption trends.

Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1289

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