On September 5, 2025, domestic futures main contracts rose broadly across the board. Polysilicon surged 8.99%, hitting the daily limit, coking coal rose over 6%, glass and coke gained over 4%, butadiene rubber and industrial silicon advanced over 3%, rubber, No. 20 rubber, and soda ash climbed over 2%. On the downside, eggs, low sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt declined over 1%.
Everbright Futures:
On Friday, polysilicon hit the daily limit intraday with nearly 30% increase in open interest, with prices once surpassing the July highs. Meanwhile, photovoltaic sector concept stocks rose in tandem. On the news front, on September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026 Stable Growth Action Plan," which mentioned future development targets: average growth rate of value-added for above-scale computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing at around 7%, and after adding lithium batteries, photovoltaics and component manufacturing and other related fields, the electronic information manufacturing industry's average annual revenue growth rate should reach over 5%. Market anti-involution trading has heated up again, and driven by sentiment, polysilicon's short-term trend may maintain a strong pattern.
From a fundamental perspective, production and sales restrictions for polysilicon began after entering September. With silicon material factory inventory distribution having relatively high concentration, polysilicon companies attempted to push up silicon material prices, with the highest quoted price reaching 55 yuan/kg. However, due to terminal power station profitability constraints, the component segment's acceptance of price increases has peaked, and silicon material followed downstream market sentiment cooling. Currently, crystal pulling companies show obvious resistance to high-priced resources, with market intention prices mostly concentrated in the 50-52 yuan/kg range. It is expected that before specific policy measures are implemented, the market will remain in a game between policy support and fundamental drag, with polysilicon entering a range mode with obvious tops and bottoms. Policy dynamics will have periodic disturbance effects on the market. Key focus should be on the September 30 MIIT energy conservation special inspection results and industrial chain inventory destocking situation. Risks of delayed capacity storage and weak peak season demand still need to be monitored.