The Ministry of Finance will issue ultra-long-term special bonds next year to support consumer goods trade-in programs, commonly referred to as the "National Subsidy" (国补).

Recently, the Party Committee of the Ministry of Finance held a meeting to convey and study the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting proposed utilizing government bond funds effectively in 2026, including issuing ultra-long-term special bonds to continue supporting the "dual priorities" (两重) in national strategic projects and key security areas, as well as the "dual new" (两新) initiatives—large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins.

Among these, the consumer goods trade-in policy is most closely tied to public interest. The Ministry's meeting confirmed that ultra-long-term special bonds will be issued in 2026 to sustain the "National Subsidy" program. These bonds, with maturities of 20 years or longer, are designated for specific areas such as the "dual priorities" and "dual new" initiatives.

To stimulate consumption, the central government first issued 150 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds in 2024, providing fiscal subsidies for automobile and home appliance trade-ins—the "National Subsidy." Due to its success in boosting consumption, the 2025 issuance was increased to 300 billion yuan.

With 2025 drawing to a close, many are concerned about whether the subsidy will continue. The recent Central Economic Work Conference signaled an extension by calling for optimized implementation of the "dual new" policies. The Ministry of Finance's meeting further clarified that ultra-long-term special bonds will be issued next year to maintain the program.

The meeting also emphasized refining the "dual new" policies, leveraging dual interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and loans to service-sector businesses, and enhancing efforts to revitalize consumption. This indicates further optimizations to the "National Subsidy" in 2026.

Currently, the subsidy covers goods consumption, with an expanding scope. For instance, the 2024 program targeted two categories: automobile trade-ins and eight types of home appliances (e.g., refrigerators, washing machines, TVs). In 2025, coverage widened to include four additional appliances (e.g., microwaves, water purifiers) and three digital products (e.g., smartphones, tablets).

Experts previously suggested granting local governments more flexibility to adjust subsidy ranges based on regional consumption patterns. Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, recently stated that adapting to consumption structure changes requires expanding high-quality goods and services, optimizing "dual new" policies, and removing unreasonable consumption restrictions to unlock service-sector potential.

Analysts predict the 2026 subsidy budget may moderately increase from 2025 levels, with funds reallocated to areas like service consumption to amplify fiscal impact on economic revitalization and industrial upgrades. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst at Orient Jincheng, suggested raising the trade-in subsidy from 300 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan in 2026 to bolster domestic demand.

Ministry of Commerce data shows that from January to November 2025, trade-in programs drove over 2.5 trillion yuan in related sales, benefiting more than 360 million people.