A forecast released Monday by logistics technology provider ShipMatrix indicates that US express delivery companies will handle 2.3 billion packages during this year's holiday shopping season, representing a 5% increase from the same period last year, as additional shopping days help offset the drag from Trump's tariff policies.

Investors are eager to understand information about the holiday express delivery season from Thanksgiving to Christmas, as during this period, express companies like FedEx and United Parcel Service Inc may handle twice the normal volume of packages on certain days.

ShipMatrix stated that the expected growth in holiday express volume will not be evenly distributed among companies. This could mean some express companies face greater customer resistance to so-called "peak surcharges," which help protect express companies' profits from rising costs during the holiday peak season.

In the first half of 2025, Amazon's logistics division saw a 6.1% increase in total domestic package volume in the US, while FedEx grew by 5%. According to ShipMatrix, United Parcel Service Inc, which is reducing its Amazon package volume, saw business decline by 5.4%, while the US Postal Service (USPS) experienced a 6.7% drop in volume.

The report noted that the combined volume decline of United Parcel Service Inc and USPS exceeded the growth of Amazon and FedEx, with an additional 102 million packages potentially handled by private express networks of major retailers like Walmart or other operators.

If current trends continue into the holiday season, "we expect FedEx and Amazon to grow 5% to 8%, while United Parcel Service Inc and USPS will remain flat," ShipMatrix added.