Tesla Stock Runs Up—Right Into Resistance. Where Shares Are Headed Next

Dow Jones
03-26

Tesla stock notched a fifth straight day of gains on Tuesday despite disappointing February sales data from Europe.

The electric vehicle maker’s shares continued to build on a significant rally after suffering a terrible decline.

Tuesday morning, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association released sales numbers. Tesla sold 16,888 vehicles in Europe, down 40% year over year. That’s actually an improvement from the 45% drop in January. Through the first two months of the year, Tesla has sold about 27,000 vehicles in Europe, down 43% year over year. By comparison, EV sales overall in the region are up 31% year over year.

Despite weak sales, Tesla stock closed up 3.5% Tuesday at $287.99, while the S&P 500 rose 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat.

The move up was a little surprising, but predicting what will happen to Tesla stock has been difficult lately.

Investors probably weren’t surprised to see another weak month out of Europe. Tesla is also ramping up production of its new Model Y version, which is responsible for some portion of the sales decline.

And recent trading has been wild. Shares gained 11.9% on Monday after gaining 5.3% on Friday. Monday was the best day for the stock since the near-15% gain on Nov. 6, the day after the presidential election.

As the recent rally picks up steam, investors can watch for a couple of key higher levels for the shares to hit.

The jump offered some relief for investors, who watched shares fall from almost $490 reached in mid-December. Postelection euphoria propelled shares up more than 90% in about five weeks as investors focused on the close relationship between CEO Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump.

Lately, investors started to worry the relationship was hurting Tesla’s brand and turning off buyers. Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas recently surveyed more than 1,000 people about their feelings toward the car maker. Almost two thirds of respondents were more likely to buy a Tesla than they were a year ago—an encouraging sign for Tesla bulls.

Still, 21% were less likely to buy a Tesla, with 80% of those swayed by recent politics. So politics mattered, but the number of people turned off might be smaller than feared.

The political intrigue has swung shares widely. “Volatility definitely cuts both ways, especially in Tesla,” said CappThesis founder and market technician Frank Cappelleri.

“The next upside reference is the 200-day moving average, which many traders are likely watching closely,” added Cappelleri. It sits near $285, near where Tesla stock closed. That could be resistance for Tesla stock, “though it didn’t offer much support on the way down.”

Fairlead Strategies founder and market technician Katie Stockton wouldn’t be surprised to see some positive follow-through to recent gains. Beyond the 200-day moving average, $320 is another level for investors to watch.

Market technicians aren’t making fundamental calls on stocks. They use market history and chart patterns to get a sense of where investors have bought and sold stocks in the past.

Sometimes Tesla’s volatility can befuddle them, too, but their training helps them understand that things are rarely as great or as bad as trading can indicate.

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