Leading maritime nations have issued a stark warning that the international rulebook governing global shipping is starting to fail, as armed conflicts and a growing shadow fleet operating beyond Western oversight disrupt the established order.

For decades, the shipping industry has operated under the protection of international law, which guarantees freedom of navigation and the neutrality of commercial vessels. However, a coalition of 18 shipping nations now asserts that these foundational principles are being breached, creating severe risks for global trade. The group stated in a declaration released on Tuesday that without maritime trade, supply chains would collapse, and the global economy as we know it would come to an abrupt halt.

The Shipping Consultative Group (CSG) noted that the struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz and the emergence of sanctions-driven shadow fleets are not merely "temporary shocks" but rather indicators of a "structural shift in the environment in which global trade operates." The member states of this group account for more than one-fifth of the world's total trade tonnage. This statement marks the first time in more than 60 years that the CSG has publicly taken a position on a political issue. Its membership includes Greece, Singapore, Denmark, Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and South Korea.

The CSG cautioned that shipping routes are increasingly being weaponised both as instruments of coercion and as sources of risk. The group added that recent events have highlighted just how fragile the maritime trading system has become. With the Danish Maritime Authority currently holding the CSG's rotating presidency, its Director General, Brian Wessel, explained to the Financial Times that this rare joint declaration stems from growing concern over the fragmentation of the maritime sector and the undermining of standards set by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations' shipping regulator.

Mr. Wessel stated that for decades, the premise of global trade has been that ships can sail freely across borders, but that premise is now under significant strain. He added that the global level playing field long taken for granted, along with the universal regulatory framework developed over many years under the IMO, is now facing a serious test.

More than 80 percent of global trade is transported by ships, which operate under IMO regulations. While the IMO was formally established in 1948, the concept of international maritime governance dates back to the 17th century, when the doctrine of "mare liberum" (freedom of the seas) was first articulated. Because of their vital role in global commerce, vessels have increasingly become both targets and leverage points in geopolitical conflicts. Over the course of this year's hostilities, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and Iran have all struck civilian shipping assets. Iran's attempts to impose a tolling mechanism on the Strait of Hormuz have also underscored the vulnerability of vital maritime chokepoints.

Tehran announced on Monday that it is close to finalising an agreement with Oman regarding the management of vessel traffic through the waterway, which handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies. It remains unclear whether this agreement will include the collection of transit fees. Shipowners and maritime bodies have warned that introducing such tolls would set a dangerous precedent that could encourage other nations controlling critical passageways to follow suit.

Meanwhile, data from the tanker tracking website TankerTrackers.com shows that sanctions imposed on Russia and Iran by the United States, Europe, and the UK have fueled the rapid expansion of a shadow fleet of oil tankers. This fleet now numbers more than 1,500 vessels, representing nearly one-fifth of the world's total tanker capacity. Almost all of these ships operate without traditional insurance. This past summer, a shadow fleet vessel, the Caroline Bezenji, carrying approximately 800,000 barrels of Russian crude oil, triggered a limpet mine near the coast of Oman. Because the ship was not covered by standard protection and indemnity insurance, the Omani government could face millions of dollars in clean-up and liability costs.