BOCI has released a research report stating that due to BUD APAC's (01876) weak performance in the first nine months of the year and cautious sales outlook, it has lowered its volume growth assumptions for the Chinese market. The bank also reduced its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 by 11% and 3%, respectively. Consequently, the target price was adjusted downward by 9% from HK$9.4 to HK$8.6, while maintaining an "Outperform" rating. The bank expects BUD APAC's clearer growth strategy to help stabilize its China business and achieve better profit growth in the medium term.

The report noted that BUD APAC's Q3 results were weak but largely in line with expectations. Regionally, China's performance remained sluggish, while Korea delivered solid margin expansion, and India continued to drive premiumization. In China, management is prioritizing route-to-market (RTM) upgrades, strengthening household consumption penetration across online, offline, and O2O channels, and increasing investment in core brands. BOCI believes these measures will help the group gradually regain market share, though the exact timing of a turnaround remains uncertain.

Given India's strong premiumization trend, the bank forecasts 1.5% revenue growth for the West Asia-Pacific region in 2026. It also expects healthy channel inventory in China, a moderate cost environment, and operating leverage to support a 1.3 percentage-point expansion in EBITDA margin to 29.5%.

In Korea, BUD APAC continues to outperform peers, gaining share in both household and on-premise channels despite weak demand. The bank projects 6.4% revenue growth in Southeast Asia for 2024, with 2.3% volume growth and 4% ASP growth. Driven by operating leverage and market share gains, EBITDA margin is expected to expand by 2.9 percentage points to 33.5%.