Unusual trading activity occurred just minutes before former President Trump's social media post about "TACO," which announced a five-day delay in strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure, raising suspicions of potential insider trading.

Approximately 15 minutes before Trump posted about "productive" talks with Iran—a message that triggered a sharp drop in oil prices and significant volatility across other assets—traders placed roughly $500 million in bets in the oil market.

Between 6:49 and 6:50 AM New York time on Monday, around 6,200 lots of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures changed hands. These trades, with a notional value of about $580 million, were completed just a quarter of an hour before Trump stated on Truth Social that recent "productive dialogue" had taken place with Tehran to end the Iran conflict.

Analysts noted that within the two minutes starting at 6:49 AM, futures equivalent to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI crude were sold. This volume starkly contrasts with the average of only about 700 lots (approximately 700,000 barrels) traded during the same window over the previous five trading days. Trump's post appeared around 7:05 AM.

Shortly after the oil market activity, and 27 seconds before 6:50 AM, futures tracking the S&P 500 index rapidly climbed, accompanied by a noticeable surge in trading volume.

Trump's statement at 7:04 AM then prompted a significant sell-off in global energy markets, while S&P 500 futures and European stock markets rallied.

These precisely timed trades recall highly profitable bets made in recent months on the prediction market Polymarket regarding the timing of potential U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela.

A market strategist at a U.S. brokerage commented, "It's difficult to prove causality... but you have to wonder who would short futures so aggressively just 15 minutes before Trump's post."

A White House spokesperson stated, "The White House has zero tolerance for any government official illegally profiting from insider information. Suggesting officials engaged in such conduct without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Several hedge funds pointed out that this is just one of multiple recent instances where large trades appeared shortly before official U.S. government announcements.

A trader at a major hedge fund mentioned that energy advisors have recently flagged several "abnormally timed" block trades. Another portfolio manager stated that a series of large, "perfectly timed" transactions have left investors feeling frustrated.

He added, "My 25 years of market intuition tells me this is highly unusual. On Monday morning, there were no major data releases or Fed speeches to justify positioning ahead of time. Such massive trading on a day with no event risk... someone just became very wealthy."

An analyst remarked, "What market participants fear most is that large, highly profitable positions were established right before such sharp price movements occurred."