Starlink Emerges as Geopolitical Tool, Subscriptions Soar 114-Fold in 4.5 Years! Unpacking the Money-Making Logic Behind Musk's SpaceX

Deep News
9小時前

From the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the Israel-Hamas conflict, and recently turbulent Venezuela and Iran, "Starlink," the satellite internet service from Elon Musk's SpaceX, is increasingly becoming embedded at the center of global geopolitical whirlpools. A commentary has pointed out that "Starlink" has devolved into an "intervention tool" for the United States. SpaceX has received over $90 billion in funding and contract support from U.S. government agencies. How has this satellite internet service become an instrument for stirring geopolitical conflicts? Meanwhile, propelled by "Starlink," SpaceX's valuation has surged ahead of the pack, nearly tripling in two years to reach $800 billion by the end of 2025, advancing towards a trillion-dollar empire.

On December 17, 2025, SpaceX launched "Starlink" satellites from Florida, USA. At the beginning of 2026, "Starlink" once again became a focal point of international attention. On January 3, following a U.S. military raid on Venezuela, SpaceX's satellite internet project "Starlink" announced it would provide one month of free broadband service to Venezuela. As demonstrations erupted in multiple locations across Iran, "Starlink" also began offering free internet access services to Iranian users. It was disclosed that a former U.S. President had directly called Musk to discuss the details of providing service to Iran. Simultaneously, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) gave SpaceX another "green light" on January 9, approving its deployment of 7,500 next-generation satellites, aiming to build "unprecedented satellite broadband capabilities."

This is not the first time "Starlink" has been entangled in international conflicts. It has been noted that behind the packaging of so-called "internet freedom," "Starlink" harbors blatant interventionist ambitions and has become an "intervention tool" for the U.S. to advance its geopolitical objectives. As one news agency put it, "Starlink" has become a "key tool in global conflicts." Just two days after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, at the request of the Ukrainian government, SpaceX rapidly activated "Starlink" service in Ukraine to replace communication networks destroyed by the war. Subsequently, "Starlink" not only provided communication support for Ukrainian civilians and government institutions but also became deeply integrated into military operations. According to reports, Ukrainian forces utilized "Starlink's" high-speed, low-latency network to operate large-scale reconnaissance drone networks, search for Russian troops, identify assembly points, drop bombs, and even directly control drones and unmanned surface vessels to launch attacks against Russian forces. The Ukrainian side stated that over 50,000 "Starlink" terminals were operational locally. "Starlink" also played a critical role in the Israel-Hamas conflict that erupted in 2023. When communications in the Gaza Strip were completely cut off on October 27, 2023, Musk stated the following day that he would provide network support for "internationally recognized aid organizations" in Gaza. This plan initially faced strong opposition from Israel, with the then Israeli Minister of Communications stating that "Hamas will use it for terrorist activities" and threatening that Israel would use all means to sever the connection with "Starlink." From Ukraine and Gaza to Venezuela and Iran, the presence of "Starlink" is ubiquitous. A foreign media commentary stated that "Starlink" has already become "part of geopolitics."

The increasingly prominent strategic value of "Starlink" in global conflicts does not stem from Musk's personal "philanthropy" or commercial operations alone; behind it lies a complex network of interests and funding involving the U.S. government, military, allies, and SpaceX. This ecosystem was particularly clear in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the initial phase of the conflict, SpaceX bore the primary cost. Musk stated that by August 2022, the company had invested over $80 million, with expectations to exceed $100 million by the end of that year. As the war continued, funding sources quickly diversified: the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) contributed approximately $3 million for hardware and services, followed by funding from the governments of Poland, the UK, Germany, and other countries, as well as non-governmental organizations. Poland became the largest donor of terminals; by December 2023, out of 47,000 terminals delivered to Ukraine, 19,500 were provided by Poland, which also continued to pay the subscription fees. Starting in June 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense signed a formal contract with SpaceX and began paying for Ukraine's "Starlink" services, fully integrating it into the official military aid system. In the Gaza Strip, media reports indicated that the "Starlink" service activated at a Gaza hospital in July 2024 was accomplished with the support of Israel and the UAE. The UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs publicly thanked Musk for supporting its field hospital in Gaza, stating that high-speed internet facilitated remote medical consultations via video calls. This suggests that in the Israel-Hamas conflict, the costs for "Starlink" were likely borne by Middle Eastern countries like the UAE.

Battlefield performance prompted SpaceX to formally market its militarized applications. In 2022, SpaceX established a new business division named "Starshield," dedicated to serving the U.S. military and national security departments. This program explicitly leverages the existing "Starlink" platform and technology to provide three core services: Earth observation, secure communications, and hosted payloads, aiming to build a secure satellite network specifically designed for the government. Substantial military contracts followed. In 2023, it was revealed that the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) had secretly signed an $18 billion "Starshield" service contract with SpaceX to build a vast spy satellite network. This contract provides SpaceX with stable cash flow unaffected by commercial cycles, typifying the high-margin, long-cycle returns from the government (G) sector. In fact, the U.S. government has consistently been one of SpaceX's most important clients. According to research reports and government reports, SpaceX has received over $90 billion in contracts and funding support from U.S. government agencies such as NASA and the U.S. Air Force. This support includes major projects like NASA's Commercial Resupply Services (over $50 billion) and Commercial Crew Program ($3.144 billion), as well as technical assistance across 10 key technology areas such as engine modeling, additive manufacturing technology, and satellite re-entry analysis. This comprehensive support, from funding to technology, has built extremely high technical and customer barriers for SpaceX.

Deep integration with geopolitics and military applications has brought substantial commercial returns for "Starlink," making it the core engine driving SpaceX's soaring valuation. According to a research report, driven strongly by the "Starlink" business, SpaceX's company valuation surged from approximately $210 billion at the beginning of 2024 to $800 billion by the end of 2025, nearly tripling within two years. The latest internal stock pricing reached $421 per share, pushing the valuation of this private company to a level comparable to the GDP of many nations.

Behind the valuation leap is the explosive growth of "Starlink's" user base and the successful evolution of its business model. According to a securities research report, "Starlink's" cumulative subscriptions were 69,420 in June 2021; by November 2025, this number had skyrocketed to 8 million, representing a 114-fold increase over four and a half years.

It is predicted that by 2040, the number of "Starlink" users could exceed 1 billion, at which point the division might account for nearly three-quarters of SpaceX's projected sales of approximately $122 billion. Another securities analyst predicts that "Starlink" revenue will reach $15.6 billion in 2026, leading to a standalone business valuation as high as $468 billion, considering it has become the "valuation anchor" for SpaceX. The success of "Starlink" stems from its dual barriers in technology and resources. Currently, "Starlink" has over 9,400 active satellites in orbit, making it the world's largest low Earth orbit satellite constellation. Leveraging the "first-come, first-served" international rule, SpaceX has established a de facto monopoly on valuable orbital and spectrum resources, significantly raising the competitive threshold for newcomers. Technologically, its V2.0 Mini satellites quadruple per-satellite capacity while reducing unit bandwidth cost by 60%, and through laser inter-satellite links, they build a mesh network in space, achieving true global coverage. "Starlink" has now developed a mature, multi-tiered commercial monetization system covering ToC (consumer), ToB (enterprise), and ToG (government) segments.

Its current revenue primarily comes from satellite broadband services and "Starshield," with Direct-to-Cell services developing rapidly, and potential future businesses like space data centers. Leveraging the significantly optimized per-satellite economic model of the V2.0 Mini and the aerospace technical barriers built by laser links, "Starlink" achieves rapid global penetration in the C-end while successfully securing high-margin, long-cycle incremental returns in the B/G-end through "Starshield" and high-end commercial applications. Meanwhile, "Starlink" has also launched its "Direct-to-Cell" service for connecting ordinary smartphones; by September 2025, it had connected over 6 million users, with the goal of obtaining spectrum usage rights for satellite-direct-to-phone services worldwide. An analyst stated that, ultimately, "Starlink" could theoretically broadcast signals to every mobile phone on Earth, creating a "nearly infinite potential market." Disclaimer: The content and data in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please verify before use. Operate at your own risk based on this information.

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