Bitcoin has surged past the $81,000 mark, with the primary catalyst traced to a dramatic shift in macroeconomic rate expectations. Data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool reveals that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month has plummeted to 50%, down sharply from over 63% just a week earlier, a recalibration that has directly driven bond yields lower.

Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller has voiced clear support for holding interest rates steady amid easing price pressures, further solidifying the foundation for a rebound in risk assets. The cryptocurrency market is displaying notable divergence, with Zcash leading the charge on a nearly 15% surge over the past 24 hours and a robust 20% gain for the week.

Hyperliquid's HYPE token and Ripple have each recorded gains of approximately 6%, while Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Dogecoin have advanced between 4% and 5%. Solana is up nearly 3%, with TRON managing only a marginal 1% increase. Over the seven-day timeframe, Bitcoin has gained about 1%, Ethereum and XRP have remained essentially flat, while Solana and TRON have each retreated close to 3%.

Data aggregated by WoofunAI shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $277 million in inflows on Thursday, though the preceding four days saw volatile flows, indicating that a consistent buying streak has yet to materialize. In traditional assets, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index has risen nearly 1%, while the All Country World Index has advanced for a third consecutive day.

The US dollar has stabilized near its May lows, and the Asian currency index has recovered to levels last seen in October 2024. The Japanese yen strengthened roughly 2% on Thursday, erasing the previous month's losses, as traders positioned for potential Bank of Japan rate hikes and possible intervention, with the exchange rate holding at 156.35 yen per dollar after touching 155.30 yen earlier.

Despite the yen's strength typically dampening carry-trade liquidity, Bitcoin's upward momentum has not been significantly hindered. The key variable for the remainder of the week lies in whether ETFs can sustain net inflows, which will serve as the core indicator of whether institutions view the current rate shift as a sustainable trend. Sustained capital inflows would confirm that macro easing expectations have translated into tangible allocation actions; conversely, stagnation in inflows would warrant caution over the risk of the rebound losing steam.