According to preliminary data from Counterpoint Research, global PC shipments in Q3 2025 grew 8.1% year-over-year (YoY). This growth was primarily driven by Microsoft's (MSFT.US) termination of Windows 10 support in October 2025, along with inventory strategy adjustments tied to U.S. import tariff changes.

The end of Windows 10 support effectively set an industry-wide "refresh countdown," prompting businesses and consumers to replace aging systems before the October deadline. Approximately 40% of the global PC installed base still runs Windows 10, making this replacement cycle a key growth driver for the PC market in the coming years.

In terms of competitive dynamics, major OEMs capitalized on the replacement wave, with several posting double-digit YoY growth: - **LENOVO GROUP (00992)** retained its global leadership, recording a 17.4% YoY shipment increase—the highest among the top six vendors. - **HP (HPQ.US)** held second place with a 10.3% YoY rise, underscoring its strong commercial market penetration. - **Dell (DELL.US)** maintained steady momentum, though its annual performance dipped slightly, with shipments down 0.9% YoY but up 2.7% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), reflecting cautious enterprise procurement. - **Apple (AAPL.US)** saw a 14.9% YoY boost, fueled by strong demand for new MacBooks and enterprise adoption. - **ASUS** posted a 22.5% QoQ surge and a 14.1% YoY gain, supported by robust consumer notebook demand.

The top five vendors collectively captured nearly 75% of the global PC market, with further consolidation in premium segments, while smaller brands saw flat or declining shipments.

Senior Analyst Minsoo Kang noted, "While current growth is OS-migration-driven, the rise of AI PCs will bring deeper transformation—though Q3 2025 data doesn’t yet reflect this shift." Significant AI PC shipment growth is expected post-2026, propelled by next-gen processors like Qualcomm’s Elite X2, Intel’s Panther Lake, and NVIDIA-collaborated designs.

Deputy Director David Naranjo added, "The 2025 PC recovery isn’t just about system updates but preparing for the next phase. Many firms are buying AI-ready PCs to future-proof operations, even without immediate needs. The next replacement wave will be driven by ‘edge AI,’ not just performance upgrades."

Looking ahead, the industry is pivoting toward AI PCs as the next growth engine. While 2025 saw launches of locally AI-accelerated models (e.g., laptops running generative AI assistants), these features aren’t yet mainstream sales drivers. Buyers still prioritize OS compatibility, performance, and battery life.

True acceleration for AI PCs is anticipated post-2026, as next-gen chips and platforms enter mass production, with widespread adoption likely by 2027. This transition could propel the PC industry into a new growth phase in the latter half of the decade.