A survey of Bank of Japan watchers indicates the central bank is likely to raise policy rates next week, resuming its tightening cycle for the first time since January. All 50 economists polled predict the BOJ will lift its benchmark rate to 0.75% at next Friday's policy meeting. This marks the first unanimous rate adjustment forecast among respondents since Governor Kazuo Ueda took office.

After months of holding steady to assess the impact of Trump-era tariffs, the BOJ is expected to restart rate hikes. With market pricing already reflecting this move, observers say the meeting's focus will be on signals about future hike pacing and the cycle's terminal rate.

"This hike is a done deal," said Kazuhiko Sano, chief bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities. "The key is whether views on neutral rates have shifted."

The neutral rate—neither restrictive nor stimulative—serves as a critical threshold for determining appropriate policy levels. Governor Ueda has previously stated monetary conditions would remain accommodative even after hikes.

Nearly two-thirds of analysts expect the BOJ to hike roughly every six months starting this month, while 20% anticipate annual moves. Just 2% forecast quarterly hikes. Economists' median terminal rate projection rose to 1.25%, implying two additional hikes post-next week.

The consensus reflects Ueda's efforts to improve central bank-market communication after a July 2024 surprise hike triggered market turmoil.

Ueda recently delivered unusually explicit hike signals amid the yen's slide to 10-month lows against the dollar, exacerbating inflation risks from rising import costs.

81% of surveyed economists cited yen weakness as the primary catalyst for Ueda's hawkish hints. Meanwhile, 98% agreed currency pressures also deterred Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi—a known monetary dove—from opposing tighter policy.

The BOJ estimates Japan's neutral rate between 1%-2.5%. Nearly half of analysts expect updated guidance on this threshold, while 30% disagree and 23% remain uncertain.