While international gold mining giants face declining production, Chinese mining companies are leveraging high gold prices into performance gains through aggressive overseas acquisitions and capacity expansion. According to the latest Bloomberg forecast, driven by elevated gold prices and ambitious expansion plans, Chinese gold miners are projected to continue outperforming their global peers through 2026. Companies such as Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold Mining, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mine are steadily advancing towards peak profits in 2026. This follows a year in which soaring gold prices and increased production pushed their earnings to record highs.

Earlier this year, supported by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand, gold prices briefly surpassed $5,000 per ounce. Although a recent rebound in the US dollar, rising oil prices, and inflation concerns stemming from conflict in the Middle East have led to a price correction—with gold down over 10% since February 28th—broad economic uncertainty and safe-haven sentiment are still expected to provide underlying support for the metal.

Chinese miners are expanding against the trend. While international competitors grapple with falling output and limited project pipelines, Chinese gold firms are pursuing higher production and actively acquiring overseas mines. One of the most notable deals involved Zijin Mining's 5.5 billion Canadian dollar (approximately $4 billion) acquisition of Canada's Allied Gold, which operates mines in Africa. This expansion stands in stark contrast to Western rivals like Newmont Corporation and Fresnillo Plc, which are trimming production this year.

"Chinese miners are snapping up assets that global giants are shying away from," noted Eric Xiao, Sales Director at CMC Markets Singapore. While Xiao added that such deals carry challenges, including local instability and operational risks, Howard Lau, a China materials analyst at HSBC, pointed out that Chinese producers are experiencing record profit margins, which provide strong operational leverage. "There is still room for profit growth in 2026 from the ramp-up of recently completed or newly acquired projects, as well as organic growth from project expansions," Lau stated.

Domestic miners are reporting impressive results. Zijin Mining is scheduled to release its first full-year financial report on March 20th since its IPO last September. The company had previously indicated strong performance, with preliminary data showing a more than tripling of net profit. Bloomberg estimates suggest its profit could potentially double again this year. Rival Shandong Gold Mining reported that its net profit grew by up to 66%, with market consensus anticipating a 70% increase in 2026. Although Chifeng Jilong Gold Mine likely achieved 81% growth last year, its growth rate is expected to moderate to 31% this year.

In contrast, while European and American gold miners reported solid earnings in recent weeks, concerns over production declines have weighed on market sentiment. UK-listed Hochschild Mining benefited from an "extraordinary rise" in precious metal prices, with full-year profit growth exceeding analyst expectations. Peer Fresnillo reported an 81% surge in its EBITDA. In the US, the world's largest gold miner, Newmont, posted a record quarterly profit, and Canada's Barrick Gold Corporation also beat earnings forecasts. However, shares of both companies declined following their results due to concerns over capital expenditure and slowing production.

Newmont anticipates a production decrease in 2026, partly due to planned upgrades at some managed mines and lower output from two joint ventures with Barrick. Hochschild's output also dipped slightly due to planned work at one of its mines, while Australia's Northern Star Resources Ltd. saw its shares fall sharply after lowering its production guidance.

Expenditure is another concern. Fresnillo's capital expenditure budget for 2026 came in higher than expected, leading to a share price drop as investors questioned when these investments would translate into growth. "Upside may depend on continued capital discipline and higher shareholder returns," stated Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Grant Sporre and Umesh Agarwal. They added that rising costs could pressure miners' margins in the second half of the year.