Aluminum stocks saw collective gains in Hong Kong trading. At the time of writing, NANSHAN AL INTL (02610) rose 5.69% to HK$66.9, CHALCO (02600) increased 4.15% to HK$14.57, CHUANGXIN IND (02788) climbed 3.26% to HK$24.7, and CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) advanced 3.11% to HK$37.84.

The rally comes amid escalating Middle East tensions since February 28, raising market concerns about supply chain stability for primary aluminum production in the region. CITIC Securities noted that current military tensions in the Middle East are threatening the global aluminum supply chain. The report highlighted that six Middle Eastern countries possess approximately 7 million tons of primary aluminum production capacity, with Iran's nearly 800,000-ton capacity facing particular risks in both raw material inputs and finished product outputs.

Against the backdrop of limited global aluminum inventory resilience, aluminum prices are trending upward. Citi pointed out that aluminum smelters typically maintain about one to two weeks of alumina inventory—potentially longer in regions with fragile logistics—which somewhat mitigates immediate production risks in the short term. The bank indicated that rising war risk premiums, sustained high freight costs, and additional shipping delays from the Gulf region represent the most likely near-term impacts.

Goldman Sachs added that energy prices pushed higher by Middle East tensions would also transmit through the cost curve to affect global aluminum smelting profitability.