As of August 7, 2026, the oil price cycle has entered its fifth working day, marking the 16th adjustment of the year. There are seven days remaining until the next price change. Although international crude prices rose today, the forecasted decline has deepened. The current crude oil change rate stands at -9.57%, with an expected reduction of 395 yuan per ton. Based on this anticipated drop, gasoline and diesel prices could see a decrease of 0.30 yuan to 0.36 yuan per liter, potentially leading to a significant fall in August.

International crude surged over 2.75% today, yet the daily decline increased by 5 yuan per ton. Following a sharp drop in crude prices two days ago, today's closing prices rebounded by more than 2.75%. However, the decline continues to widen by 5 yuan per ton, marking five consecutive days of decreasing forecasts. The current prediction of a 395 yuan per ton reduction far exceeds the 50 yuan per ton threshold for a price cut.

It is important to note that there are still five working days in the calculation period, leaving room for uncertainty. If international crude prices rebound quickly, the current forecasted decline could narrow. Whether the reduction materializes and the final amount will be determined by official announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission.