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On October 13, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Glass fell nearly 4%, low sulfur fuel oil declined 3%, butadiene rubber, live pigs, NR20 rubber, and rubber dropped nearly 3%. On the upside, Shanghai silver and methanol rose over 2%, while Shanghai gold, iron ore, and peanuts gained over 1%.
Everbright Futures: During Friday's night session, glass opened lower and continued to decline. By Monday's midday session, glass had fallen over 4% intraday. From a transmission logic perspective, Friday evening saw U.S. President Trump announce plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the U.S. starting November 1, along with export controls on "all critical software." This renewed escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions has increased uncertainty about global economic growth and systemic risks to some extent, disturbing market sentiment and causing most risk assets to retreat. Glass may experience follow-through adjustments due to short-term emotional disturbances.
From a fundamental perspective, glass supply levels have remained unchanged since the holiday period, with industry daily melting capacity stable at 161,300 tons as of October 10. The market's core focus remains on the progress of eight production lines in the Shahe region switching to clean raw materials. Market sources suggest that production line modifications/shutdowns may be delayed, which requires further verification. However, some production lines still have ignition plans within the month, and supply disruption factors for glass are expected to decrease. On the demand side, continuous rainy weather in northern regions during the holiday period affected enterprise shipments and spot transactions, temporarily suppressing glass demand. Post-holiday market activity recovered rapidly, with production-to-sales ratios in major regions improving from 50%-60% during the holiday period to near production-sales balance. Additionally, we are still within the traditional peak season "Golden October" cycle for glass, and some terminal engineering projects in Q4 are expected to accelerate construction, suggesting glass demand outlook is not pessimistic. It's worth noting that current terminal demand improvement remains limited, and downstream order days are still at comparatively low year-over-year levels, continuing to constrain glass demand potential. Overall, short-term market expectations for supply reduction have weakened, with negative factors showing stronger marginal changes than positive factors, leading glass futures to trade mainly in weak oscillations. Future attention should focus on domestic policy expectations from important meetings, potential resonance between glass fundamentals and external factors, as well as progress on Shahe's coal-to-gas conversion, spot transaction intensity, macro sentiment, and overall commodity market trends.
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