New research from Omdia indicates that US personal computer shipments, excluding tablets, fell by 7.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 to 15.8 million units. This represents the most significant quarterly decline since the third quarter of 2023. The market contraction is attributed to several factors, including supply constraints and cost pressures from substantial price increases for PC memory and storage. Furthermore, demand for commercial PCs softened noticeably in the short term as the initial surge from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle subsided. A high base of comparison from the previous year also amplified the year-over-year drop.

In the first quarter of 2025, shipments were elevated as enterprises stocked up in anticipation of potential tariffs. In contrast, channel inventory building in Q1 2026 was limited, primarily driven by expectations of memory price hikes, which further accentuated the comparative decline. Component Shortages Weigh on US PC Shipments

As DRAM and NAND production capacity continues to shift toward AI server applications, rising costs for critical components are squeezing the profit margins of PC manufacturers on entry-level products, eroding the competitiveness of low-cost PCs. In Q1 2026, shipments of PCs priced below $500 plummeted by 18.7% year-over-year. Omdia anticipates this industry downturn will persist throughout the remainder of 2026 due to ongoing component supply constraints, forecasting a full-year 2026 US PC shipment decline of 14.4%.

Scott Braverman, a senior analyst at Omdia, stated, "The US PC market was clearly impacted by component shortages in Q1 2026. Faced with rising product prices and economic pressures, consumers broadly postponed purchases, leading to a 9.5% year-over-year drop in consumer PC shipments—a steeper decline than the overall market. In comparison, commercial PC shipments fell by only 5.0%, supported by lingering Windows 11 upgrade demand and some enterprise pre-stocking ahead of anticipated further price increases."

According to a forecast Omdia issued in May, the first half of 2026 is still expected to be a period of relatively strong demand for commercial PCs. Concurrently, persistently high component costs are projected to keep entry-level PC prices elevated until at least 2027, continuing to suppress consumer market demand.

Braverman added, "Budget-constrained segments are also under pressure, though the education market showed some improvement, declining by only 6.2% in Q1 2026 compared to the double-digit drops seen in the three preceding quarters. However, this stabilization is unlikely to last, as price increases disproportionately affect the entry-level devices that dominate education procurement. Additionally, already-tight public sector budgets are being further strained, leading to a simultaneous decline in government procurement demand. Both the education and government procurement markets are expected to remain under pressure throughout 2026, with a meaningful recovery not anticipated until 2027."

Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Omdia, noted, "While the average selling price for PCs rose by just 4% year-over-year in Q1 2026, Omdia expects ASP growth to reach 12% in the second quarter and maintain a year-over-year increase of over 12% in the second half of the year as supply-side pressures intensify. Beyond supply factors, shifts in market demand are also pushing PC ASPs higher. AI PCs now account for 44% of global PC shipments, with large enterprises increasingly purchasing these higher-priced devices, thereby lifting the overall market ASP."

Omdia forecasts that the average selling price for commercial PCs will increase by 11% in 2026. Consumer PC and government procurement ASPs are both expected to grow by 10%. In contrast, the education market, where rapid price increases create significant budget pressure, is expected to continue deferring PC refresh cycles, leading to a forecast of essentially flat ASPs for that segment.

Vendor Performance Diverges in Challenging Quarter

PC vendor performance varied significantly in Q1 2026, with differences in market segment focus and pricing strategies becoming key differentiators. HP shipments fell by 21.6% year-over-year, the steepest decline among major vendors, causing it to lose its position as the US market leader. Dell reclaimed the top spot in the US market with a 25.0% share, achieving 1.1% year-over-year growth despite the overall market decline. Lenovo also posted 1.2% growth, increasing its market share to 20.0%. Both companies benefited from significant gains in consumer market share, each adding 4 percentage points compared to the prior year, thereby narrowing the gap with Apple and HP.

Apple's shipments declined by a more modest 1.6%, outperforming the overall market, and its share held steady at 16.9%. Concurrently, as MacBook adoption in the enterprise continues to grow, Apple's share of the commercial PC market has increased to 15.3%. In contrast, smaller vendors faced greater operational pressure. Lacking the same bargaining power as larger firms for key component procurement, their collective shipments fell by 13.1%, a steeper drop than the overall market.