A stark divide exists between the reality at the Strait of Hormuz and the statements coming from the White House.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media on Tuesday, declaring that "the United States has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz... Iran is helpless against it." Trump also wrote, "I believe we will continue to hold it!"

However, a recent report from The Wall Street Journal reveals that ship-tracking data shows only 14 vessels traversed the waterway on Tuesday—a dramatic drop from the daily average of over 130 before the conflict began. On the same day, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed again since a June agreement to reopen it fell apart last month.

Iran has not defeated the U.S. Navy, but through sporadic drone and missile attacks, it has successfully deterred shipping companies, ship captains, and insurers. According to insurance broker Marsh, war risk premiums for a single transit of the Strait of Hormuz have soared to 10% of a vessel's value, compared to just 0.25% before the conflict. This means a single transit for a large oil tanker could cost between $3 million and $10 million in insurance. The ongoing shipping disruption threatens to raise energy and transport costs, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures just months before the U.S. midterm elections.

Data Reveals an Over 80% Plummet in Strait Transit

Ship-tracking data paints a clear picture of the true situation at the Strait of Hormuz. The average daily transits in July were only 26, and in June, 33, compared to the pre-war figure of over 130.

According to data from vessel tracking firm Kpler, of the 166 known transits in August, roughly half used the Iranian-controlled shipping lane, while the other half transited with their location beacons turned off, making their routes unknown. The U.S. Navy-escorted route along the Omani coast was used only twice in known instances.

"The southern Oman corridor cannot currently be considered a reliable, protected transit route," said Dimitris Maniatis, founder and CEO of maritime risk firm Marisks.

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, stated last week that since the U.S. and Israel launched the war in February, Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz has cost the world over 2.6 billion barrels of oil supply.

Fear as a Weapon: Iran Maintains High Deterrence at Low Cost

Iran's strategic core is not military suppression but creating uncertainty. Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, pointed out, "Iran is leveraging the fear factor from real physical risks to maintain a degree of control over the Strait. For many global tankers, the risk-reward calculation simply doesn't add up."

Iran's attacks are intermittent but sufficient to maintain a deterrent effect. The United Arab Emirates reported that Iran struck one of its vessels on Saturday, following attacks on three other ships the previous week. While Iran has not launched new attacks on commercial vessels since last weekend, the uncertainty itself acts as a powerful deterrent. Iran doesn't need to sink ships; the mere possibility of an attack is enough to send insurance costs skyrocketing by millions of dollars for a single voyage.

Currently, ships stuck near the Strait of Hormuz still frequently receive warnings from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy via maritime radio, demanding they request permission before transiting. Meanwhile, vessels anchored near Oman occasionally hear U.S. Navy warnings to ships attempting to breach the blockade to return to their original ports.

Energy Market Under Pressure, Political Risk Shifts to the U.S. Home Front

Control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a central sticking point in U.S.-Iran de-escalation talks. Trump imposed a maritime blockade on Iranian ports in April, then reached an agreement in June to lift the blockade, reopen the Strait, and initiate a truce process. However, the ceasefire collapsed in early July. Iran resumed attacks on commercial vessels near Hormuz, and Washington accused Tehran of violating the agreement. Trump then reinstated military strikes and withdrew sanction waivers, while Iran re-imposed its preferred shipping routes, effectively ending the truce.

Simultaneously, the situation in the Red Sea is also worsening. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked a Tanzanian-flagged cargo ship, the "Tihamah," on Tuesday, killing four crew members. Rescue teams were attacked again when they arrived. According to MarineTraffic, this marks the first instance of fatalities from Houthi attacks on shipping since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war.

The ongoing shipping disruption is spreading to broader economic impacts. The Strait of Hormuz was responsible for roughly one-fifth of global oil transport before the war. The IEA warns that the Strait's renewed closure has interrupted the initial recovery of oil supplies from the Gulf region.

For Trump, this war, now lasting over five months, risks becoming a domestic political liability. Rising energy prices and inflationary pressure on consumer goods could impact his approval ratings in the months leading up to the midterm elections. Trump said last week that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has made the Strait of Hormuz "somewhat open at the moment," but he acknowledged that Tehran can still damage ships with missiles, drones, and mines.