UBS has released a research report stating that the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) ban on copper and cobalt concentrate exports has a limited direct impact on global copper concentrate supply.

This is because the DRC previously implemented similar bans in 2013, 2019, and 2023, and granted exemptions when domestic smelting capacity was insufficient. Additionally, over 85% of the country's copper exports are already in refined or semi-refined form, so the policy's impact is believed to be minimal.

Regarding cobalt, China has not imported cobalt ore or concentrate from the DRC since November 2023. The main imported cobalt intermediate products are not covered by this policy, so the impact is also minor.

UBS expects the ban to have a limited impact on Zijin Mining Group and CMOC Group and maintains a "Buy" rating for both. Zijin's copper assets in the DRC primarily include the Kamoa-Kakula and Keluwazi projects. The company holds a 44.2% interest in the former, which produced 389,000 tons of copper last year. A 500,000-ton-per-annum smelter at the site began operations at the end of last year and can process most of the concentrate output. The Keluwazi project's main products are blister copper, copper anodes, and electrowon copper cathodes, which are not subject to the concentrate export restriction.

As for CMOC, its TFM and KFM projects primarily produce copper cathodes and cobalt hydroxide, which are also processed products rather than concentrates, so they are also unaffected by the ban.

UBS believes this ban reflects a trend among resource-rich countries to retain more value domestically through downstream processing, similar to Indonesia's strategy of restricting copper concentrate exports to promote domestic smelting capacity. The short-term impact on physical copper concentrate supply is limited, but in the long term, it supports a structural tightening of the copper concentrate market, further reinforcing copper's long-term fundamentals as a strategic resource.