Bullish (BLSH) will release its latest quarterly earnings report on November 19, 2025 (before the US market opens). The market is focusing on the recovery of its trading activity and the impact of US compliance progress on earnings quality.

Market Forecast

The market consensus for Bullish's third-quarter total revenue is approximately $71.2 million, with adjusted earnings per share of about $0.098.

Review of Last Quarter

The crypto trading platform Bullish released its first quarterly earnings report since going public in September. The second-quarter earnings per share were $0.93, far exceeding market expectations of $0.03, with adjusted revenue at $57 million, slightly below the market expectation of $60.7 million. The company's second-quarter trading volume reached $179.6 billion, significantly higher than the same period last year. The company estimates its adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter will rise to $25 million to $28 million, much higher than the second-quarter figure of $8.1 million.

Outlook for This Quarter

Impact of US Compliance Progress on Institutional Liquidity and Fee Structure

After obtaining the New York State BitLicense, Bullish can serve institutions and high-net-worth traders in key markets. The US market has high requirements for compliance and liquidity; once the integration process accelerates, order depth and spreads are expected to optimize, positively impacting trading and market-making revenues.

Institutional clients' trading behaviors emphasize availability, clearing efficiency, and risk control. The platform needs to maintain high availability and compliance requirements for matching, custody, and risk control systems, which will increase short-term technological and compliance investments but is expected to offset market volatility with higher-quality revenues and more stable transactions.

Combining the management's previous guidance for this quarter's adjusted earnings and revenue range, it can be inferred that the platform has some confidence in the recovery of trading activity. If US clients gradually increase volumes, the marginal dilution of quarterly unit costs will enhance profit flexibility.

Interaction of Trading Volume Cycles, Spreads, and Profit Flexibility

Last quarter, the company disclosed a significant increase in quarterly total trading volume compared to the same period last year. Improvement in spreads and liquidity helps stabilize fees and market-making revenues. For this quarter, if digital asset price volatility remains in the mid-to-high range, transaction and position turnover rates may continue to improve.

The stability of the fee model is correlated with market volatility. During high volatility periods, matching fees and market-making revenues marginally improve while imposing higher requirements for risk limits and capital utilization. If Bullish maintains stability in capital and risk control, it will help manage tail risks.

Regarding the net profit margin, last quarter's net profit margin was high, including one-time or non-recurring impacts. If measured on an adjusted basis this quarter, the profit margin will be more comparable. The market will focus more on the authenticity and sustainability of the expense ratio and operating cash flow.

Commercialization Progress of Index and Data Business

Core benchmark and data licensing revenues based on CoinDesk index are subscription-based and sustainable in the mid to long term. Last quarter, disclosures related to multi-asset product cooperation and AUM linkage laid the foundation for this quarter’s promotion of licensing and derivative products.

If ETFs or multi-token products based on indices like CoinDesk 5 continue to advance this quarter, index licensing fees, data subscriptions, and potential market-making synergies are expected to increase, forming a positive feedback loop of "trading-index-liquidity."

The bargaining power of the index business depends on product adoption and the scale of passive funds. If more institutions adopt related benchmarks in their portfolio configurations, Bullish's position in the crypto index ecosystem will be strengthened, and revenue volatility is expected to be lower than the trading business.

Fee Discipline and Quality of Adjusted Earnings

Last quarter, the company recorded a positive GAAP net profit, but slightly negative on an adjusted basis. Entering this quarter, the company gave a positive range for adjusted earnings, indicating confidence in reducing the expense ratio and leveraging scale effects.

Key observations include the input-output ratio of sales and marketing expenses and compliance costs. If user acquisition costs decline and institutional retention rates improve, gross margin quality per unit revenue will improve.

The relationship between operating cash flow and EBIT will affect the market's assessment of earnings sustainability. If the adjusted profits confirmed this quarter match with cash flow, it will enhance valuation stability.

Analyst Opinions

Recent market opinions are predominantly bullish. Several institutional comments focus on three points: first, the increase in institutional liquidity due to US compliance progress; second, commercialization of index and data business licenses; third, the recovery of trading activity driving adjusted profitability to turn positive.

Some opinions indicate that "the company has already delivered a positive net profit last quarter and provided a higher range for adjusted earnings and revenue this quarter. If US market integration progresses smoothly, profit flexibility will continue to be released."

Overall, bullish arguments center on the following: the guidance range indicates a recovery in operating momentum, compliance benefits enhance valuation certainty, and index licensing drives revenue diversification.

Bearish views focus on the sustainability of adjusted profitability and sensitivity to market volatility, but these are relatively few.