A recent survey of 16 foreign exchange professionals has yielded the following results.

Seven experts, or 44%, directly forecast that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current levels. A further five experts, or 31%, believe the probability of a rate hike is low. Combined, these two groups represent a dominant 75% majority view.

Only one respondent explicitly stated that a rate cut is more likely, while two others see a cut as less probable. One expert believes a rate hike is more likely. This indicates that market positioning for imminent rate cuts has significantly receded.

Should a rate cut materialize, the primary drivers for a potential appreciation of the renminbi would be a weakening US dollar, as cited by eight respondents, and a narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential, noted by six experts.

In a scenario where rates are increased, pressure on the renminbi would stem from a deterioration in global risk appetite and capital flowing back to the United States, a view held by seven experts, alongside a strengthening US dollar, cited by six.

Notably, in the rate hike scenario, five experts believe the impact would be limited, with the renminbi being primarily driven by domestic fundamentals. This suggests the currency's resilience to negative external shocks may exceed market expectations, and that domestic economic fundamentals are becoming the core anchor for exchange rate valuation.