According to Goldman Sachs' analysis of Q2 earnings reports and management meetings for US retail companies, the industry demonstrated overall resilience in performance, but outlook for the second half of the year has become more cautious.

Goldman Sachs noted that most companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations in same-store sales, gross margins, and operating margins. However, regarding guidance, more companies chose to maintain or lower their full-year outlook rather than raise it, highlighting Goldman's view that uncertainties exist in the second half, including tariff impacts and potential price increases that may emerge in the latter half of the year.

Most retailers achieved better-than-expected Q2 performance: 57% of companies exceeded Goldman Sachs' same-store sales expectations, while 50% of companies surpassed expectations for gross margins and operating margins. Major retailers including Home Depot (HD.US), Lowe's (LOW.US), Target (TGT.US), and Walmart (WMT.US) all achieved steady growth.

However, companies' earnings guidance has become more conservative: only 36% of companies raised the midpoint of their full-year EPS guidance, with most maintaining or lowering expectations. This reflects management's concerns about second-half inflation transmission, rising tariff costs, and consumer uncertainty.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that companies generally believe tariff impacts will fully materialize in Q4. Goldman Sachs maintains "Buy" ratings on BJ's Wholesale Club (BJ.US), Home Depot, Lowe's, and Walmart, favoring their strategies and market positions, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating on Target.