Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has criticized former President Donald Trump's economic agenda, stating that it failed to deliver on its core promise of job creation. Krugman argued that Trump's tariffs and other policies instead weakened U.S. competitiveness and severely impacted employment in key industries.

In a newsletter published on Monday, Krugman wrote, "A significant portion of Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 now regret their choice." This disappointment stems largely from Trump's inability to meet public expectations for economic improvement.

While public discourse has focused on Trump's pledge to lower prices, Krugman pointed out that "the primary goal of his policy agenda was not reducing prices but creating jobs." Trump had promised to revive U.S. manufacturing through sweeping tariffs, deregulation, and mass deportations of undocumented workers. However, Krugman noted that these measures backfired, leading to a jobs downturn for American workers. He added, "Even by its own absurd standards, the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) jobs strategy has been a total failure."

Krugman highlighted that during President Joe Biden's tenure, employment in manufacturing, construction, and mining actually increased, partly due to green energy policies. However, "since Trump took office," reversing these policies has led to job losses in many of these sectors. He cautioned that official employment figures might eventually be revised downward, making Trump's record appear even worse.

The economist also criticized Trump's trade agenda, which he said was based on fundamental misunderstandings—including the belief that eliminating the U.S. trade deficit would boost manufacturing jobs. Citing research from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Krugman noted that even if the deficit were erased, the share of U.S. manufacturing jobs would rise by no more than one percentage point. "They simply got the math wrong," he said.

Krugman further warned that tariffs raised costs for domestic producers, making them "less competitive" against foreign manufacturers. Economist Justin Wolfers echoed similar concerns on Monday, stating that the U.S. economy has effectively stalled, with job creation "close to zero" since the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April.

A survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) projects U.S. economic growth at 2% in 2026, up from earlier forecasts of 1.8% in October and 1.3% in June. However, most respondents expect sluggish job growth throughout the year, with unemployment likely holding at 4.5%.

Bank of America Global Research's latest analysis suggests that the U.S. economy is being propped up by artificial intelligence (AI)-related spending, without which the country would already be in recession. The report estimates that AI contributed 62.5%—or a full percentage point—to the 1.6% GDP growth in the first half of 2025.