According to the latest memory industry research from TrendForce, the 2027 memory market will continue to be driven by AI applications. DRAM will maintain a tight supply situation and a strong price trend, as HBM production continues to crowd out capacity and AI server demand remains robust. The procurement momentum for CPU memory and HBM is steadily increasing.

In contrast, NAND Flash is expected to see its supply become more abundant in the second half of 2027, driven by the concentrated release of new production capacity and persistently weak end-user consumer demand. This shift could subject NAND Flash prices to correction pressure.

DRAM Supply Growth Fails to Keep Pace with Demand Acceleration

TrendForce reports that major DRAM manufacturers have already initiated capacity expansion plans early to address the medium-to-long-term demand arising from the expansion of AI infrastructure. In the short term, suppliers are actively increasing output from existing fabs while accelerating process node upgrades and reducing the frequency of product transitions to support overall bit supply growth in 2026.

Looking ahead to 2027, although several suppliers have planned new production capacity to come online, the majority of new fab output is expected to ramp up only in the second half of 2027, constrained by lead times for construction, equipment installation, and raw materials. Given the production cycle, significant output contributions from these new facilities will not materialize until 2028. Furthermore, the wafer input required for the HBM manufacturing process is significantly higher than for conventional DRAM, meaning that the increase in new wafer starts cannot be proportionally converted into effective bit output. These factors will limit the overall growth of DRAM bit supply in 2027, keeping the market supply capacity tight.

On the demand side, driven by continued high capital expenditure from North American cloud service providers, accelerated shipments of next-generation CPU platforms from Intel and AMD, and the gradual commercialization of Agentic AI, global server shipments in 2027 are expected to see a year-on-year growth rate that expands from 17% in 2026. This, combined with the growth in HBM capacity per unit and the introduction of new specifications like SOCAMM, will significantly increase memory content per server. This will help maintain the demand bit growth for DRAM at a high level in 2027. In contrast, consumer terminals such as smartphones and laptops are expected to see a continued decline in shipments in 2027, as brands pass on higher component costs, leading to increased device prices and dampening consumer replacement demand.

TrendForce points out that the DRAM supply and demand bit sufficiency ratio is projected to be between -1% and -2% in 2026. In 2027, as demand growth outpaces supply growth, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen further. However, capital expenditure from major CSPs is expected to remain at historical highs in 2026. If memory prices remain elevated in 2027, their share of total CSP capital expenditure will increase. It remains to be seen whether this situation will affect the planning of CSP capital expenditure in 2027, and consequently, their memory procurement.

NAND Flash Capacity Increases Drive Shift in Supply-Demand Structure

In 2026, NAND Flash manufacturers are primarily increasing bit supply through process node upgrades. Due to strong demand from AI servers and high-capacity enterprise SSDs, suppliers are continuously increasing the supply ratio of enterprise SSDs to mitigate profitability risks associated with weak consumer demand. In 2027, as manufacturers accelerate the upgrade to higher-layer-count products and new fab capacity is gradually released, bit supply growth is expected to surpass that of 2026, leading to a significant expansion in market output scale.

On the demand side, robust server deployment is driving strong procurement of high-speed, high-capacity enterprise SSDs by CSPs and enterprise clients. QLC SSDs, in particular, are expected to be the main driver of NAND Flash bit demand growth in 2027. In the consumer electronics segment, purchasing intentions are expected to remain suppressed due to rising retail prices.

With capacity gradually being released in 2027 and consumer electronics demand remaining weak, the market supply and demand structure is set to undergo a fundamental shift. TrendForce has previously proposed the view that the sufficiency ratio will turn positive in 2027, indicating a looser supply-demand balance. However, if the adoption of Agentic AI achieves a breakthrough, it could reignite demand for high-speed SSDs and help push the overall market towards a more balanced state.