As tech giants like Meta intensively launch new smart glasses products, the industry is approaching a "breakthrough inflection point." On September 22, Bank of America released a research report indicating that AI glasses will dominate growth from 2025-2027, while AR glasses are expected to take over as the core growth driver starting in 2028. China is positioned to play a pivotal role in the global smart glasses supply chain, leveraging over 80% supplier representation and its manufacturing hub status. The report identifies Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ), Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.,Ltd. (002273.SZ), and Sunny Optical (02382) as key beneficiary targets.

**Industry Trends: From "AI First" to "AR Dominance" with Expected Shipment Growth Acceleration**

Bank of America analysts conclude that the smart glasses industry has entered a phase of accelerated demand release, with core growth logic displaying "two-stage differentiation" characteristics:

**Phase One (2025-2027): AI Glasses Leading Growth** AI glasses without displays, due to high technological maturity and controllable costs, will first become mainstream in consumer markets. They will primarily serve lightweight scenarios including voice interaction, environmental perception, and health monitoring. AI glasses shipments are projected to achieve 25% average annual growth during this phase.

**Phase Two (Starting 2028): AR Glasses Taking the Lead** As display technologies (such as Micro OLED) and optical solutions (such as optical waveguides) see cost reductions and computing power improvements, AR glasses with displays will gradually replace AI glasses. They will penetrate complex scenarios including navigation, industrial assistance, and immersive interaction, with AR glasses shipments expected to achieve 101% average annual growth.

From an overall market perspective, global smart glasses shipments will achieve a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2025-2030, with a shipment volume "doubling inflection point" expected around 2027, driven primarily by consumer electronics replacement cycles, enterprise application deployment, and tech giant ecosystem investments.

**Supply Chain Structure: China as Core Manufacturing Base, EMS Extending to Southeast Asia**

The global smart glasses supply chain exhibits "China-dominated, regional division of labor" characteristics, with specific arrangements as follows:

**Supply Side: Chinese Companies Control Over 80% of Core Segments** From components to final assembly, Chinese suppliers cover key areas including cameras, optical waveguides, micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS), and batteries. Global market share exceeds 50% for camera modules (Sunny Optical), optical coating (Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.,Ltd.), and final assembly (Goertek Inc.).

**Manufacturing Side: China as Core, EMS Expanding to Southeast Asia** Current global smart glasses manufacturing bases are concentrated in China (such as Weifang, Shandong and Shenzhen, Guangdong). However, electronic manufacturing services (EMS) companies are gradually transferring some non-core assembly processes to Southeast Asian regions like Vietnam and Malaysia to mitigate supply chain risks, while core component production remains in China.

**Technical Barriers: Focus on "Efficient Delivery + Adaptability"**

Industry core competitive focus centers on two technical directions: drug delivery efficiency (such as optical transmittance in AR glasses and voice recognition accuracy in AI glasses) and user adaptability (such as lightweight design, battery life, and usage scenario matching for different user groups). Companies with core technology patents will establish differentiation barriers.

**Key Company Analysis: Ratings and Valuation Logic**

Based on "supply chain position + technical barriers + growth certainty," Bank of America provides clear ratings and target prices for three core targets:

**1. Goertek Inc. — Global Assembly Leader, Upgraded to "Buy"**

**Core Advantages:** World's largest smart glasses assembler, accounting for over 70% of assembly orders from leading clients like Meta and Sony. Also possesses core component (such as acoustic modules) self-research capabilities with higher vertical integration than peers.

**Target Price Basis:** Based on 34x projected 2026 PE (consistent with historical XR industry upward cycle valuations), target price set at RMB 42. This valuation considers 30% average annual growth expectations for smart glasses assembly business from 2025-2027 and profit margin improvements from component business.

**Risk Alerts:** Downside risks: AirPods market share erosion by competitors (affecting short-term cash flow), AR/VR business growth below expectations, macroeconomic deterioration leading to weak consumer electronics demand. Upside risks: Profit margin improvement exceeding expectations, smart glasses shipment growth surpassing forecasts, new client orders (such as Apple, Google) materializing.

**2. Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.,Ltd. — AR Optical Core, Maintaining "Buy"**

**Core Advantages:** Core supplier of AR glasses optical waveguide sheets, using "nanoimprint + coating" processes with product transmittance reaching 92% (industry average 85%). Also positioned in 3D sensing lenses and periscope lenses, creating synergy with smart glasses business.

**Target Price Basis:** Based on 27x projected 2026 PE (historical trading average), target price set at RMB 30. Core valuation logic supported by stable 22% compound annual growth rate in company earnings from 2024-2027 and order increases from AR glasses penetration rate improvements.

**Risk Alerts:** Downside risks: 3D sensing lens and periscope lens penetration below expectations, weak consumer electronics demand, slow expansion of automotive head-up display (HUD)/LiDAR business. Upside risks: AR glasses optical waveguide sheet orders exceeding expectations, consumer electronics demand recovery, profit margin improvements from industry competition relief.

**3. Sunny Optical — Camera/Optical Waveguide Dual-Drive, Maintaining "Buy"**

**Core Advantages:** Core smart glasses camera module supplier (over 60% global market share), simultaneously entering optical waveguide field to form "optical components + modules" integrated capabilities. Automotive ADAS camera business provides technical synergy for smart glasses (such as low-power imaging algorithms).

**Target Price Basis:** Based on 25x projected 2026 PE, target price set at HK$104. Valuation logic based on optical industry environment improvements from 2024-2027, with company average selling price (ASP) and profit margins expected to continue rising, and smart glasses business becoming a second growth curve.

**Risk Alerts:** Downside risks: Consumer electronics demand deterioration leading to product specification downgrades, iPhone market share growth below expectations, automotive ADAS penetration slowdown. Upside risks: Smart glasses camera module ASP improvements, automotive business orders exceeding expectations, industry competitive landscape optimization.

**Industry Risk Alerts**

**Technology Implementation Risk:** AR glasses display effects and battery life still haven't reached consumer-grade expectations. If technology iteration slows, it may delay industry breakthrough timing.

**Supply Chain Volatility Risk:** Core components (such as Micro OLED screens) depend on Japanese and Korean companies. Geopolitical issues or capacity problems causing supply shortages could impact industry shipments.

**Demand Shortfall Risk:** Continued macroeconomic weakness and extended consumer electronics replacement cycles may lead to smart glasses demand below expectations.

**Intensifying Competition Risk:** More tech giants (such as Apple, Huawei) entering the market may trigger price wars, squeezing profit margins for small and medium suppliers.