Market analyst Yang Jun from JoIntelligence specializes in apple market analysis.

New season early apples are gradually entering the market, with paper-bagged Gala currently being the main variety available. Production areas are concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu regions, where this year's listing and procurement prices are significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, cold storage old season Fuji apples are experiencing poor market conditions with fewer merchants and weakening transaction prices. The disparity between new and old season apple markets is evident, with price polarization trends strengthening. Influenced by this situation, market expectations for opening procurement prices of late-ripening Fuji apples are gradually rising.

**Cold Storage Apple Demand Weakens, Prices Decline**

Cold storage inventory is mainly concentrated in Shandong production areas, with very limited remaining supplies in other regions. Since July, cold storage old season apples have maintained consistently poor market conditions, with prices continuously declining. By late August, the weighted price for grade one and two apples sized 80# and above in Shandong production areas reached 3.73 yuan per jin, representing a decline of 0.41 yuan per jin compared to early July, a cumulative drop of 9.90%, and a decline of 0.46 yuan per jin compared to early May. Storage merchants' profit margins have further compressed. While medium and small fruits and mixed-grade apples still maintain reasonable profit margins, high-quality supplies and large fruits sized 85# and above have experienced severe profit margin reduction.

After entering summer, cold storage apple market conditions have continued to decline. First, they face impact from seasonal fruits. This year's lychee bumper harvest resulted in selling prices significantly lower than the same period last year, creating substantial pressure on apple market demand. Most markets indicate that while wholesale prices haven't changed significantly, sales volumes remain consistently low, evident from market arrival conditions, leading to notably decreased merchant enthusiasm for procurement from production areas. Second, existing inventory still maintains certain profit margins, making storage merchants more willing to sell, resulting in weak price support. Third, with Mid-Autumn Festival falling on October 6th this year, new season Fuji apples will gradually begin supplying the market during this period, leaving old Fuji apples with insufficient subsequent demand.

**New Season Early Apples Launch at High Prices, Premium Products Maintain High Market Conditions**

This year's early apple varieties have maintained consistently favorable market conditions. Starting from initial varieties like Chenyang and Qinyang, early apple prices have remained at relatively high levels. After paper-bagged Gala entered the market, opening prices generally exceeded the same period last year by 0.3-0.4 yuan per jin. Premium product prices remain stable at high levels, with later-listing production areas also maintaining high opening prices. In recent days, paper-bagged Gala from Jingning area in Gansu has gradually entered the market, with mainstream prices starting at 5.0-5.3 yuan per jin for 70# grade, approximately 1.0 yuan per jin higher than the same period last year. This year shows significant quality variations, similarly demonstrating clear price differences between premium and inferior products. As procurement progresses, prices for inferior and small fruits have slightly declined, widening the price gap with premium products.

Affected by this year's weather conditions, apple coloring has been challenging, with most supplies showing insufficient redness. Due to drought and other issues, the problem of undersized fruits is quite prominent, resulting in a lower proportion of premium early apple varieties. Cold storage apples show higher defect rates, and with market demand for trying new season supplies, merchant enthusiasm for purchasing new season apples is significantly higher than for old season cold storage supplies, maintaining good demand.

**Market Raises Price Expectations for New Season Fuji Procurement**

As new season early apple procurement proceeds, market expectations for opening procurement prices of late-ripening Fuji apples are gradually rising, with this situation being more evident in Northwest production areas. The main supporting factors include: First, high early apple prices may drive similarly high late-ripening apple prices. Second, listed early apples show quality deficiencies and undersized fruit issues, raising market concerns that late-ripening Fuji may face similar problems. Third, the later Mid-Autumn Festival timing means festival market demand will drive early procurement prices for new season late-ripening Fuji. Fourth, storage merchants from the previous production season generally achieved substantial storage profits, particularly in Northwest production areas with significant profit margins, somewhat driving merchant procurement enthusiasm. Based on current market conditions, opening prices may exceed last year by 0.3-0.5 yuan per jin, with potentially higher price differences in some production areas.