JPMorgan Revises Fed Rate Cut Forecast to December, Shifting from Previous Hold Expectation

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JPMorgan economists now anticipate the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, revising their earlier projection that such a move would be delayed until January.

A team led by Michael Feroli, the bank's chief U.S. economist, stated on Wednesday that recent dovish remarks from key Fed officials—particularly New York Fed President John Williams—prompted them to reassess the timeline for monetary easing.

Following the delayed release of September's nonfarm payrolls report due to the government shutdown, JPMorgan had initially expected the Fed to hold rates steady in December.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on December 9–10 in Washington. JPMorgan now forecasts a 25-basis-point rate cut in both December and January.

Feroli noted in a client report, "While uncertainty remains around the outcome of the next meeting, we now see higher odds of a cut in two weeks, given the latest commentary from Fed officials."

Money markets currently price in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point December rate cut, a sharp increase from below 30% just a week ago—before Williams' remarks and after the September jobs data release.

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