U.S. Weekly Review|Equities Reach New Peaks Amid Iran Optimism; Goldman, Netflix, TSMC in Spotlight

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5小時前

Major equity indices extended their upward momentum this past week, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and small-cap Russell 2000 all achieving new record levels. The positive sentiment was partly fueled by ongoing hopes for a diplomatic agreement with Iran. While a growing number of stocks presented buy signals, several of the week's strongest performers were previously downtrodden software and other leading names. Financial heavyweights Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) headlined a wave of largely positive bank earnings, though their subsequent stock performance varied. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) declined despite robust results, while ASML also saw a downturn. Netflix (NFLX) and Alcoa (AA) likewise retreated following their earnings reports.

Equity Markets Scale New Heights

The stock market delivered another week of substantial gains. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 indices all set fresh all-time highs. Continued optimism surrounding a potential Iran deal supported equities and helped moderate oil prices, even as earnings season gained significant momentum. An increasing count of stocks triggered buy signals, although many early leaders are now considered extended.

Crude Prices Plunge as Hormuz Reopens

U.S. crude oil futures tumbled 11.5% to settle at $83.78 per barrel on Friday afternoon. The sharp decline followed an announcement from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open, coinciding with a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices had begun the week above $100 per barrel after the U.S. enforced a blockade on Iranian ports, which remains active. Hopes persist for a broader peace agreement that would encompass Tehran's nuclear agenda. Even with the strait reopening, production losses incurred during the conflict are expected to maintain tighter conditions in global energy markets compared to pre-war times when oil traded below $65 a barrel.

Semiconductor Leaders Surpass Expectations

ASML (ASML), the Netherlands-based leader in chipmaking equipment, exceeded first-quarter forecasts. Earnings per share grew 24%, with sales increasing 17% to $10.3 billion. However, the company's sales outlook for the second quarter fell short of expectations. Concurrently, Taiwan-based foundry giant TSMC reported first-quarter results that beat estimates and featured raised guidance. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) saw a 63% surge in quarterly earnings alongside a 39% rise in sales. TSMC projected higher second-quarter revenue and elevated its full-year sales forecast and capital expenditure plans. Both stocks declined immediately after reporting but rebounded on Friday, ending the week little changed and remaining within their bases.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley Exceed Forecasts

Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) delivered earnings that significantly outperformed estimates this week, driven by heightened activity in investment banking and advisory services. Goldman reported on Wednesday a 24% jump in earnings to $17.55 per share, with revenue also climbing 24% to $17.28 billion. The bank highlighted a "significant increase" in completed mergers and acquisitions, which propelled advisory fee revenue up 89%. Revenue from investment banking fees increased 48%. Morgan Stanley posted a 16% rise in earnings, while revenue surged 32%. The firm's Institutional Securities segment benefited from increased market volatility and strong investment banking advisory services. MS stock advanced solidly, attempting a breakout, while Goldman shares edged slightly lower.

Major Banks Clear Earnings Bar

JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Bank of America (BAC) all surpassed quarterly expectations. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Bank of America's Brian Moynihan both pointed to a "resilient" U.S. economy. JPMorgan's earnings increased 17% on 10% revenue growth. Citigroup's earnings jumped 56% with revenue up 14%. Bank of America reported a 25% gain in earnings, supported by 7% revenue growth. Wells Fargo (WFC) saw earnings rise 15%, beating estimates, but its 6% revenue growth failed to satisfy investors.

Schwab Declines on Mixed Report

Charles Schwab (SCHW) exceeded earnings estimates with a 38% profit increase, but a 16% revenue rise to $6.48 billion narrowly missed expectations. Daily average trading volume soared 34% to a record 9.9 million trades. CFO Mike Verdeschi noted "robust client engagement" across the firm's wealth management, trading, and lending solutions. The financial services company also announced plans to provide customers with access to direct bitcoin and ethereum trading, with more digital assets to follow. SCHW stock fell more than 7% after the report, dropping below its converging 50-day and 200-day moving averages and turning negative for the year.

Asset Custodians Post Strong Results

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) reported a 42% increase in first-quarter earnings, marking a second consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. Revenue climbed 13% to $5.41 billion. Assets under custody rose to $59.4 trillion, while assets under management reached $2.1 trillion. The bank also announced a new $10 billion stock repurchase program.

State Street (STT) saw first-quarter EPS swell 39%, with revenue increasing 16% to $3.8 billion. Both metrics represented the best gains in several years. Assets under management grew 20% to $5.6 trillion.

Netflix Shares Decline Following Cautious Second-Quarter Forecast

Netflix (NFLX) announced an 86% surge in first-quarter earnings per share, significantly boosted by a $2.8 billion termination fee from its canceled deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Revenue increased by 16% to $12.25 billion, also surpassing expectations. However, for the current quarter, the streaming leader projected earnings of 78 cents per share, an 8% increase, on sales of $12.57 billion, up 13%, with both figures falling short of analyst forecasts. Additionally, Netflix maintained its full-year revenue guidance, with the midpoint of $51.2 billion slightly below the consensus estimate of $51.37 billion. The company's stock price dropped following the earnings release.

Alcoa Stock Dips on Earnings Miss and Hormuz Strait Developments

Alcoa (AA) reported a 35% decline in first-quarter earnings alongside a 5% drop in revenue, both missing expectations. Reduced shipments—down 31% sequentially for alumina and 8% for aluminum—overshadowed the benefit of higher aluminum prices. The company partly attributed the results to Middle East tensions. Concurrently, news of Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz exerted downward pressure on aluminum prices. Alcoa's stock fell sharply, retreating below a key buy point but managing to hold above its 50-day moving average.

Johnson & Johnson and Abbott Laboratories Disappoint with Guidance

Healthcare giants Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) exceeded first-quarter profit and sales forecasts, but their subsequent guidance disappointed investors. J&J's earnings per share grew 21% with revenue up 9%, marking another quarter of acceleration, yet the Dow component only marginally raised its full-year earnings outlook. Sales of its immunology drug Stelara fell significantly short of projections due to growing biosimilar competition. Meanwhile, Abbott lowered its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance following recent acquisitions from Exact Sciences. Its second-quarter profit forecast was notably below expectations. While Q1 sales and profit beat estimates, U.S. medical technology sales were soft, partly due to weaker demand for its body-worn glucose monitor, Libre. JNJ stock experienced a modest decline, while Abbott shares fell to their lowest levels since late 2023.

Other Notable Market Developments

Signs emerged that the freight recession may be ending, as J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) reported a 27% surge in earnings, accelerating for the third consecutive quarter. Revenue increased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022. While intermodal volumes rose, yields, or revenue per load, declined. JBHT stock broke out to record highs.

Amazon.com (AMZN) announced an agreement to acquire Globalstar (GSAT) for $11.6 billion. Globalstar is a communications provider with a network of low Earth orbit satellites, positioning Amazon to compete with services like SpaceX's Starlink and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS). Amazon intends to continue providing satellite services for iPhone and Apple Watch under a renegotiated agreement with Apple (AAPL), which holds a 20% stake in Globalstar and contributed to two-thirds of its 2025 revenue. Following the news, Globalstar stock surged while AST shares fell.

Credo Technology (CRDO) saw its stock price soar after announcing the acquisition of DustPhotonics, a move aimed at accelerating its expansion into silicon photonics and optical connectivity. Credo is primarily known for its copper-based electrical interconnect products used in data centers.

Revolution Medicines (RVMD) skyrocketed 41% on Monday after presenting what it described as "unprecedented" results for its experimental pancreatic cancer treatment. Data showed patients lived for a median of 13.2 months, nearly double the 6.7-month survival rate observed in the chemotherapy control group.

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) received FDA approval for its drug, Filspari, for treating patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). This marks the second approved indication for Filspari, following its earlier approval for IgA nephropathy, another kidney disorder. The company's stock surged more than 37%.

American Airlines (AAL) shares jumped on reports that United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby proposed a potential merger during a late-February meeting with former President Donald Trump. Kirby reportedly argued that combining two of the three largest U.S. carriers would create a stronger competitor in international markets. However, any such deal would face significant antitrust scrutiny. In other airline news, Bloomberg reported that soaring jet fuel prices might force Spirit Airlines to liquidate, after the carrier filed for bankruptcy twice within a year.

Fastenal (FAST) reported a 15% rise in earnings, marking a second consecutive quarter of slight acceleration in growth, meeting first-quarter views. Revenue climbed 12% to $2.2 billion, slightly missing estimates. The supplier of fasteners, nuts, screws, and bolts saw its stock fall from a buy zone.

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