JPMorgan released a research report stating it expects Chinese bank stocks to achieve absolute price gains, but believes they may underperform the broader market in 2026. The firm upgraded its rating on Minsheng Bank (01988) H-shares from "Neutral" to "Overweight," while downgrading its rating on Agricultural Bank of China (01288) H-shares from "Overweight" to "Neutral."

JPMorgan anticipates that approximately 110 trillion yuan in time deposits will mature in 2026, including about 7 trillion yuan in excess household savings. This could provide liquidity support for the capital market and drive market sentiment. Driven by a recovery in net interest income and wealth management fees, JPMorgan expects a moderate improvement in revenue and profit growth for Chinese banks in 2026. However, bank stocks may relatively underperform during a liquidity-driven rally.

Among high-dividend stocks, JPMorgan prefers Bank Of Communications Co.,Ltd. (601328.SH), Bank Of China (03988), and CCB (00939); whereas Bank Of Ningbo Co.,Ltd. (002142.SZ), Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.,Ltd. (600000.SH), Industrial Bank Co.,Ltd. (601166.SH), and CM BANK (03968) (600036.SH) are seen as having better growth potential. JPMorgan expects growth-oriented stocks to outperform high-dividend stocks.