The tanker shortage has reached such severity that newly delivered vessels, which typically transport refined products on maiden voyages, are now racing empty to load crude oil as quickly as possible. Data from Signal Ocean's vessel tracking and chartering reveals six newly built VLCCs delivered this year have sailed ballast from East Asia to crude loading zones in the Middle East, Africa, or the Americas—a scenario that occurred only once in 2022.

Traditionally, tanker owners utilize new vessels' first voyages to carry cleaner refined fuels like gasoline before transitioning to crude shipments—a practice driven by both economic and logistical rationale: refined products eliminate post-voyage cleaning requirements, while East Asia's shipbuilding hubs conveniently serve regions that simultaneously import crude and export processed fuels.

This conventional pattern is being upended by an acute tanker shortage. Production increases from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, coupled with Western sanctions on Russia and Red Sea navigation risks, have extended voyage distances and absorbed vessel capacity. The strain has forced smaller product tankers into crude transportation and compelled traders to split cargoes due to insufficient large vessels—factors collectively driving shipping costs higher.

The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, tracking crude freight rates across 12 major routes, has surged 50% since late July. "With VLCCs earning $100,000/day and Suezmaxes commanding $80,000/day for crude transport, market participants are rushing to secure these rates before they vanish," noted Georgios V. Sakellariou, chartering analyst at Signal Maritime.

The trend was exemplified by the VLCC Aliakmon I, which departed a Northeast Chinese shipyard empty in late June before loading 2 million barrels in Kuwait—marking 2023's first observed ballast maiden voyage. The Mitsui & Co.-owned vessel subsequently delivered the crude to South Korea in late November.