July 16 Financial Digest: US Inflation Caps Gold Gains, Formal Process Launched for Powell Successor

Market Watcher
2025/07/16

Gold retreated Tuesday as market participants monitored tariff developments while US inflation data matched expectations. Spot gold traded near $2,327/oz, down 0.5%, with US gold futures settling 0.7% lower at $2,336.7. Zaner Metals' Peter Grant noted: "Tariff concerns should continue supporting gold despite current range-bound trading." The dip followed President Trump's threat to impose 30% tariffs on EU and Mexican imports.

Oil prices edged below $1% after Trump gave Russia 50 days to end the Ukraine conflict before facing sanctions. Brent crude settled at $85.01/barrel while WTI closed at $82.52. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo observed: "Immediate supply disruption fears eased with this deadline." OPEC maintained its forecast for "exceptionally strong" Q3 oil demand despite tariff-related demand concerns.

Wall Street witnessed divergence as the Nasdaq climbed 0.18% to a record 18,472.57, fueled by NVIDIA's 4.7% surge after resuming H20 AI chip sales to China. The S&P 500 tech sector gained 1.3% while the Dow dropped 0.98%. Commonwealth Financial's Rob Swanke cautioned: "Investors await sales translating to earnings." Banking stocks fluctuated during earnings season, with Citigroup jumping 3.7% on strong results while Wells Fargo slid 5.5%.

The dollar index strengthened with USD/JPY hitting 148.84 - a 15-week high - as June CPI rose 0.3% monthly, the largest increase since January. Annex Wealth Management's Brian Jacobsen noted: "Tariff impacts appear milder than feared." Markets priced in 44bps of 2024 Fed cuts, with a 60% probability for September action. EUR/USD fell to 1.0835, its lowest since late June.

Treasury Secretary Besant confirmed the "formal process" to identify Fed Chair Powell's successor has commenced, noting tradition dictates outgoing chairs leave the Board to avoid market confusion. Meanwhile, Trump urged rate cuts citing "low" consumer prices.

International developments: - US allies set August deadline for Iran nuclear deal before triggering sanctions snapback - Google, Blackstone pledged $25B each for Pennsylvania AI infrastructure - Indonesia deal grants US full market access for $15B energy/$4.5B farm exports - France unveiled €43.8B deficit-reduction plan spanning four years - WTO reported 3.6% Q1 global trade growth fueled by US tariff stockpiling

Domestically, Chinese chipmakers reported capacity saturation over the past three months. Industry sources noted domestic alternatives now compete directly with NVIDIA's H20 chips on specifications and pricing.

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