The US Labor Department reported on Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6th unexpectedly rose to their highest level since February, reaching 229,000. This increase of 4,000 from the prior week exceeded the median economist forecast of 220,000 and may reflect seasonal volatility common during school summer breaks and holidays. The number of continuing claims, which measures the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits, also rose to 1.8 million in the previous week. Economist Eliza Winger noted, "Initial claims remain low by historical standards and continue to be below year-ago levels. Combined with the May non-farm payrolls report, the data suggests the labor market's momentum remains robust."

In a separate development, the World Bank stated in its latest Global Economic Prospects report that global economic growth is projected to slow to its weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to higher energy prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. The bank forecasts global growth to decelerate to 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025. It noted that the US economy is expected to grow 2.2% this year, unchanged from its January projection, as stronger underlying growth, consumer spending, and AI investment have largely offset the negative impacts from the Middle East conflict. However, tighter monetary conditions, higher energy prices, and persistent uncertainty are expected to weigh on US growth in 2026.

Key data to watch today includes the UK's April monthly industrial production figures, Germany's final May CPI inflation rate, the UK's April monthly GDP data, and the preliminary US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Gold/US Dollar

Gold prices rebounded sharply yesterday, reclaiming the $4200 level, and is currently trading around $4175. The rally was primarily supported by a combination of short covering and a retreat in the US Dollar Index, the latter driven by signs of easing tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, weaker-than-expected US economic data released during the session provided further support. However, lingering expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates capped the upside for the precious metal. Resistance is now seen near $4250, with support around $4100.

US Dollar/Japanese Yen

The USD/JPY pair declined yesterday, hitting a six-day low and currently trading around 160.30. The drop was fueled by profit-taking and a broad-based weakness in the US Dollar, which lost its safe-haven appeal as geopolitical risks receded. Furthermore, market expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and concerns about another round of Japanese intervention in the currency market also exerted downward pressure on the pair. Resistance is anticipated near 161.00, while support lies around 159.50.

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar

The USD/CAD pair advanced yesterday, reaching a fresh seven-month high and currently trading near 1.3990. The pair found support from sustained expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve policy stance and from a decline in crude oil prices, which softened due to signs of easing Middle East tensions. However, the pair's gains were limited by a concurrent decline in the broader US Dollar Index, which also weakened as safe-haven demand cooled. Resistance is eyed near 1.4100, with support located around 1.3900.