Market News: On March 2, escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly heightened confrontations between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran, have intensified risk aversion among investors. This has driven safe-haven capital into the gold market, serving as a primary catalyst for bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in March stands at 93.6%. Although short-term expectations for rate cuts have cooled, the long-term outlook for monetary easing remains intact. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index, constrained near the 98 level, is displaying a pattern of high volatility with a weakening bias, further supporting upward movement in gold prices.
Technical Perspective: Last week, the gold market opened at 5,107.4 and immediately surged to 5,252 before experiencing a sharp decline on Tuesday. The weekly low touched 5,092.7, after which prices rebounded strongly amid volatile trading. By Friday's close, renewed geopolitical concerns following reports of strikes against Iran fueled another rally, pushing gold to a weekly high of 5,281.2. The week concluded with gold settling at 5,280.2, forming a solid bullish candlestick with a slightly longer lower shadow on the weekly chart. This pattern suggests continued upward momentum in the coming week. In terms of trading levels, if the market opens higher today, a pullback to around 5,310 may present a buying opportunity, with a stop-loss set at 5,295. Upside targets are seen at 5,380, 5,400, 5,450, and above 5,500. Further gains will largely depend on developments in U.S.-Iran tensions. Should geopolitical risks intensify significantly, gold prices could potentially surge toward 6,000.