The United Nations has issued a stark warning that the intensifying El Nino weather event is developing into an exceptionally powerful climate phenomenon, which is projected to persist until February 2027. This prolonged event is expected to place numerous countries at high risk of severe flooding, drought, and extreme heat, creating a ripple effect on global commodity markets.
Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the UN's World Meteorological Organization, stated the phenomenon has the potential to deliver a heavy blow to populations and economies worldwide. Saulo noted that the destructive impact of drought and flooding is already visible, and the effects are expected to worsen as El Nino continues to strengthen over the coming months.
While countries in the Asia-Pacific and Latin American regions are set to bear the brunt of the direct climatic effects, nations across the globe will experience the fallout through knock-on consequences for food commodities and energy markets. For instance, on September 1, 2026, in Metapan, El Salvador, a significant drop in the water level of Lake Guija was observed due to the drought conditions, leaving boats stranded on the exposed lakebed.
Unusual weather and dry spells have hit Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. A report from Oxfam links this phenomenon to El Nino and highlights that it has already led to substantial crop failures. Simultaneously, Indonesia is currently battling destructive forest and land fires.
India, meanwhile, is experiencing a weaker-than-normal monsoon season, which is suppressing the growth of key crops such as rice, sugar, cotton, and soybeans. The anchovy fishery off the coast of Peru, a critical source of raw material for animal feed, has suffered what is being described as a devastating blow.
The extreme weather conditions are also introducing unpredictability into energy production and demand. Output from hydroelectric, wind, and solar power facilities may face disruptions, while industries such as oil and gas extraction, refining, and mining are also at risk of operational interruptions.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated on Thursday that El Nino is intensifying rapidly before our eyes. He described the world as having entered a danger zone for extreme weather, framing the current situation as a race between rising disaster risks and the determination to take climate action and protect populations. Guterres emphasized that winning this race is imperative.
An El Nino event is officially declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific exceed the long-term average by 0.5 degrees Celsius. Recent research from the World Meteorological Organization shows that in July, sea surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal. Between the end of July and mid-August, temperatures in these waters surpassed the average by 2.2 to 2.6 degrees Celsius.
The World Meteorological Organization notes the temperature anomaly is even more pronounced in the lower layers of the ocean. Between July and early August, sub-surface water temperatures were found to be more than 8 degrees Celsius above the historical average. El Nino, which translates to "little boy" in Spanish, is a natural climate phenomenon that alternates with its counterpart La Nina ("little girl") on a cycle of every two to seven years.