Gold and Silver Plunge in Afternoon Trading: Is a Fresh Bearish Catalyst Emerging?

Deep News
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Precious metals prices fell steadily through Monday afternoon, with New York gold futures dropping more than 3% and New York silver futures losing over 5% as of press time.

In addition, US-listed gold mining companies saw their share prices decline in pre-market trading, with Newmont down 3.4%, Sibanye Stillwater down 5%, Harmony Gold down 6%, Kinross Gold down 4.7%, AngloGold Ashanti down 6.2%, and Barrick Mining down 3.5%. The SPDR Gold ETF fell 3.2%.

On the news front, Xinhua cited Iranian media reports on the 28th that Iran's delegation has no plans to hold talks with the US side in New York. The Islamic Republic News Agency, citing a source, reported that the Iranian delegation traveled to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly, and the delegation's agenda does not include plans for a new round of negotiations with the US. Iran's foreign minister will depart for home on the 29th after completing his scheduled itinerary. The source said Iran had already conveyed its position and considerations clearly to the US side last week through Qatari mediators, and Iran is now waiting for a response from the US. US President Donald Trump said on the 27th that he expects the US and Iran to restart negotiations within the coming week.

In the oil market, Brent crude futures rose more than 2% during the day, while WTI crude futures gained nearly 3%. Some analysts believe the rise in oil prices has intensified inflation concerns and reinforced market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: "The combination of high bond yields and high oil prices continues to weigh on gold. Due to uncertainty in the oil supply outlook, rising oil prices have brought inflation back into the investor spotlight. If inflation or employment data come in stronger than expected, it could continue to push bond yields higher and further pressure gold prices."

This week, a series of US employment and inflation data will be released, including job openings, the ADP employment report, the PCE inflation report, and the nonfarm payrolls report. Some analysts said that rising energy costs are currently the main driver of upward inflation, but oil prices are unlikely to sustain their rise. If energy prices are effectively controlled later, the Fed's willingness to keep raising rates will decline, so the probability of a sustained weakening in gold prices is relatively low. Nevertheless, the repricing of dollar credit continues to drive the global de-dollarization process, central bank gold purchase demand remains persistent, and China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 22 consecutive months, with the trend toward reserve diversification clearly defined. Combined with recurring geopolitical risks and the return of ETF inflows, the floor support for gold prices is solid, and the medium- to long-term price center still has room to rise.

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