Abstract

Hesai Group will report quarterly results on March 24, 2026 Pre-Market; investors will focus on revenue acceleration, margin trajectory, and whether earnings per share track guidance amid a shifting product mix.

Market Forecast

Based on company-facing forecasts for the current quarter, Hesai Group’s revenue is projected at 1.09 billion RMB, implying 49.97% year-over-year growth, with EBIT expected at 121.53 million RMB, up 60.24% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS estimated at 1.14, down 20.00% year-over-year. Forecasts available center on revenue, EBIT, and EPS; management has not provided explicit gross margin or net margin targets for the quarter in focus.

The company’s core revenue remains concentrated in its Products business, which delivered 790.10 million RMB in the prior quarter and is set to carry the growth cadence into the current period. The most promising growth vector appears to be higher-value, feature-rich product configurations within the Products line, which are positioned to scale volumes and lift blended profitability if execution on cost and yield targets holds.

Last Quarter Review

Hesai Group’s previous quarter delivered 795.40 million RMB in revenue, a gross profit margin of 42.10%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 256.00 million RMB, a net profit margin of 32.21%, and adjusted EPS of 2.00, up 688.24% year-over-year.

A key financial highlight was the strong operating leverage: EBIT reached 108.92 million RMB, rising 313.98% year-over-year as revenue scaled and cost efficiencies were realized. Main business performance was led by Products at 790.10 million RMB and complemented by Services at 5.30 million RMB, underscoring the continued dominance of product shipments in quarterly revenue composition.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Products

The Products segment is set to remain the primary revenue driver this quarter. With the prior quarter posting 790.10 million RMB in Products revenue against total sales of 795.40 million RMB, the mix confirms the company’s shipment-led top line and the sensitivity of margins to volume, mix, and manufacturing yields. The current-quarter revenue estimate of 1.09 billion RMB implies that Products will again carry the majority of the load; the degree of upside versus this baseline will hinge on shipment linearity through the quarter and the balance of higher-value configurations within the portfolio. Mix is a critical lever: if a higher proportion of advanced-capability units ship, gross margin can benefit from premium pricing and improved scale efficiency, but only if yield metrics remain aligned with targets to avoid cost drag from rework or scrap.

Conversion of orders into delivered units remains a central swing factor. The company’s cadence through the prior quarter suggests improved operational throughput and cost absorption, with a 42.10% gross margin as the baseline. Sustaining a gross margin near or above that level in the current quarter will depend on component cost trends and negotiated pricing with key customers. In periods of rapid scale-up, logistics and packaging costs can temporarily inflate, but there is corresponding room for per-unit cost relief as the production run stabilizes, which can cushion margins even when pricing is stable or slightly compressing. The EBIT profile for the quarter is guided to 121.53 million RMB, which, if achieved, would demonstrate that opex intensity is being contained while gross profit expands with volume. Investors should also monitor operating expense phasing, especially R&D capitalization and expense timing, as that will influence the conversion from gross profit to EBIT.

Pricing discipline remains pivotal. The company’s current EPS estimate of 1.14, a 20.00% year-over-year decline, implies that while revenue and EBIT are forecast to grow, earnings may be weighed by either margin mix or elevated operating investments. This can be reconciled if the company prioritizes strategic customer programs requiring initial pricing accommodation or if depreciation and amortization tied to prior capacity investments step up. The Products segment’s performance will be interpreted through this lens: strong revenue growth is expected, but the quality of that growth—measured by margin progression and EPS—will be scrutinized by the market.

Most promising business vector: Premium configurations and solution bundles

Within the broader Products line, shipments that incorporate premium configurations and solution bundles represent a compelling growth vector this quarter. This sub-mix typically carries better average selling prices and, when supported by efficient manufacturing and stable yields, can enhance segment gross margin. The ability to execute on these shipments at volume can elevate revenue beyond the baseline 1.09 billion RMB forecast and contribute to a more favorable earnings mix, provided that incremental opex support remains measured. The prior quarter’s performance suggests the company already captured benefits from cost efficiency, as reflected in a 42.10% gross margin and 32.21% net margin; extending these gains while scaling premium volumes is a key test for management this quarter.

Commercial traction for higher-feature units tends to move with customer program milestones and validation windows. If customer acceptance and deployment timelines align with internal readiness, the recognition of revenue can be both timely and margin-accretive. Conversely, slippage in acceptance or a need for additional validation cycles could defer revenue into subsequent periods and introduce short-term absorption pressure. The EBIT growth estimate of 60.24% year-over-year indicates that management expects solid operating leverage even with a mixed EPS trajectory; this balance supports the view that premium configurations, executed efficiently, can lift operating profit even if headline EPS is tempered by non-cash items or timing of expenses.

Sustainability of this vector also depends on the cost curve. As procurement scales on key components and as the learning curve reduces unit assembly time, incremental margins tend to improve. The prior quarter’s strong net margin provides a cushion, but markets will want to see evidence that variable cost per unit continues to trend lower, allowing premium ASPs to fall through to gross profit in a durable fashion. In this context, watch for commentary on yields, scrap rates, and field performance metrics, as these are leading indicators of the margin trajectory for premium shipments.

Stock-price swing factors this quarter

Three elements are likely to dominate the stock’s reaction on the print and guide. The first is the revenue growth delta versus the 1.09 billion RMB estimate. A print that materially exceeds this level would validate both the volume ramp and mix aspirations; a miss would likely raise questions about either conversion timing or near-term pricing trade-offs. Revenue alone, however, won’t define the reaction; investors will calibrate the result with margin quality against the prior quarter’s 42.10% gross margin and 32.21% net margin. If gross margin expands or remains resilient while EBIT meets the 121.53 million RMB forecast, the market should treat the revenue outcome more favorably.

The second swing factor is EPS versus the 1.14 estimate. Forecasts indicate that EPS could be down 20.00% year-over-year, even as EBIT grows, suggesting a complex earnings bridge. The reconciliation will likely involve depreciation, amortization, and potentially non-operating items or tax phasing. A beat on EPS—particularly if driven by core operations rather than transitory items—would counter the perceived earnings pressure and support a constructive post-report move. If EPS trails despite revenue and EBIT meeting forecasts, the market will look for clarity on whether the gap stems from one-off items or signals a reset to a lower margin baseline.

The third factor is forward commentary. Given the prior quarter’s 47.46% year-over-year revenue growth to 795.40 million RMB and margin performance, investors will seek confirmation that growth can compound into the next quarter. Any commentary that clarifies order visibility, backlog conversion, or average selling price stability will be influential. If management frames a path to sustain gross margin near the recent 42.10% level while maintaining robust shipment growth, it could catalyze upward estimate revisions even if the current quarter’s EPS is in line. Conversely, cautious language on costs or pricing could overshadow a headline revenue beat. In short, the mix of growth, margin durability, and guidance color will be the fulcrum for the stock reaction.

Analyst Opinions

Across recently published notes in the period under review, the majority view skews cautiously constructive on Hesai Group’s near-term setup. The constructive camp emphasizes three points heading into the report. First, revenue visibility appears solid enough to underpin the 1.09 billion RMB estimate, with upside if conversion and mix land favorably late in the quarter. Second, margin quality has improved off last quarter’s base, evidenced by a 42.10% gross margin and 32.21% net margin, creating room for EBIT to track the 121.53 million RMB forecast even if EPS is softer due to non-operational flows. Third, the operating leverage observed last quarter—313.98% year-over-year growth in EBIT to 108.92 million RMB—supports a thesis that incremental volume can translate to profit growth without proportionate opex expansion.

The constructive outlook also highlights the interplay between premium configuration shipments and cost trajectory. Analysts leaning positive expect that a higher mix of premium units can drive improved average selling prices and sustain gross margin around—or modestly above—the prior quarter’s 42.10%, on the assumption of continued yield improvements and stable procurement costs. This view recognizes that the EPS estimate of 1.14 embeds a 20.00% year-over-year decline, but frames it as conservative in light of EBIT growth and potential for opex timing effects in the quarter. If the company prints even a modest revenue beat with stable-to-better gross margins, the constructive camp expects positive estimate revisions at the operating income line, with the EPS dial moving as non-operating elements normalize.

The path to validation, in the majority view, focuses on the quality of revenue. Analysts emphasize two checks: whether revenue upside, if achieved, is driven by sustained shipments to key programs rather than one-time deployments, and whether product mix tilts to higher-value configurations that enhance contribution margins. Clear commentary on backlog conversion, pricing discipline, and the cost curve would reinforce confidence. Conversely, they note that a revenue beat driven by lower-ASP units or by a pull-forward effect could be treated warily if margin signals soften. Even so, the majority sees risk-reward balanced toward constructive outcomes given the prior quarter’s margin base and the forecasted 60.24% year-over-year increase in EBIT.

In sum, the prevailing expectation among constructive voices is that Hesai Group will deliver a revenue outcome near or above 1.09 billion RMB, protect gross margin close to the recent 42.10% level through mix and cost execution, and print EBIT around the 121.53 million RMB guide, with EPS risk contained and explainable. Should this pattern materialize, they anticipate the narrative shifting from skepticism over the EPS decline to a focus on sustainably expanding operating profit, which would support a firmer medium-term earnings trajectory.