Gold prices faced increased technical selling pressure on Wednesday, June 24th. A significant cooling of inflation expectations substantially diminished the metal's appeal as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, leading to a decline that established a new corrective low. Coupled with persistently hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, the downward trend showed no signs of abating. In the short term, prices are expected to continue falling, potentially testing the 100-week moving average support around $3580. Conversely, a sustained move back above $4200 would be required to signal the potential for a further phase of recovery.

In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4112.35 per ounce, reaching an initial intraday high of $4114.83 before encountering resistance and beginning a fluctuating descent. This decline extended into the late US session, establishing an intraday low of $3959.22. A minor recovery ensued, with the price closing at $3998.87. The daily range was $155.61, resulting in a closing loss of $114.48, or 2.78%.

Looking ahead to Thursday, June 25th, international gold opened slightly weaker, weighed down by yesterday's selling pressure and the prevailing short-to-medium-term bearish technical outlook.

Market focus for the day will be on key US economic data releases including the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the annualized Core PCE Price Index for May, and the Durable Goods Orders for May. The overall bias for this data is skewed towards negativity, suggesting a continued strategy of favoring short positions intraday.

Currently, while falling crude oil prices are lowering inflation prospects and tempering expectations for Fed rate hikes—which could limit gold's downside and potentially trigger a rebound—this dynamic simultaneously erodes gold's attractiveness as an inflation hedge, contributing to its current counter-trend decline.

Furthermore, fundamental pressures are significant. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict and Turkey's decision to sell $120 billion in reserves to defend its currency, and combined with the unexpectedly hawkish debut of the new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh which triggered broad-based US dollar strength, gold prices have been under sustained pressure. The recent initial breach below the $4000 level, a first since last November, has intensified technical pressure, suggesting a continued short-term downtrend.

Technical Analysis

On the monthly chart, gold continues its downward momentum, moving further away from the resistance posed by the 5 and 10-month moving averages and its uptrend line. Bearish momentum is increasing, indicating a potential for further downside adjustment towards support near the middle Bollinger Band around $3760.

On the weekly chart, gold has been trading below its 5 and 10-week moving averages for several weeks, indicating a weak trend. The price has now broken below the support of the 60-week moving average and continues to decline, with bearish pressure mounting. As anticipated, it has touched the lower Bollinger Band near the $4000 level this week. In the short term, it may fall further to test support around the 100-week moving average near $3600, at which point long positions could be considered for a potential phase of recovery.

On the daily chart, gold is in a sustained downtrend, trading below its short-term moving averages with the Bollinger Bands expanding downwards, confirming bearish dominance. The short-term outlook points to further declines, suggesting a strategy leaning towards weakness for the day.

Intraday Trading Levels

The following are preliminary reference points for intraday trading. Specific entry and exit points should be determined based on real-time account guidance.

Gold: Support levels to watch are around $3970 or $3910; Resistance levels are around $4045 or $4070.

Silver: Support levels to watch are around $56.50 or $55.50; Resistance levels are around $58.65 or $60.30.