The mid-year economic reports for all 31 provinces have been released, with 15 of them posting GDP growth rates above the national average of 4.7%.

A finance professor from Nankai University noted that the first half of the year shows a pattern of "stable foundations, emerging new drivers, and intensifying divergence." Major economic provinces like Zhejiang and Shandong are leveraging high-tech manufacturing and the digital economy as stabilizers for growth. Regional divergence highlights differences in resource endowments and transformation capabilities, signaling that China's economy is moving from "speed competition" to a new phase of "quality collaboration," setting the stage for differentiated paths toward high-quality development.

Anhui Reclaims a Spot in the National Top 10

National data shows that in the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 69.5704 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices. Tibet led all provinces with a 6.3% growth rate, followed by Zhejiang at 5.7%. Other provinces with growth rates exceeding 5.5% include Shandong, Shanghai, and Anhui.

In terms of total economic output, the top ten spots are held by Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan, Hubei, Fujian, Shanghai, and Anhui. Together, these ten provinces account for over 60% of the national total, playing a pivotal role. Guangdong and Jiangsu each surpassed 7 trillion yuan, while Shandong exceeded 5 trillion yuan, and Anhui returned to the top ten.

A chief analyst from Dongyuan Investment noted that growth is supported by clear characteristics: "new drivers driving progress, industry as a stabilizer, and foreign trade as a pull." Key factors include high-tech manufacturing and artificial intelligence as core engines, continued empowerment from the digital economy and private sector, and a recovery in foreign trade boosting the open economy.

Looking at the development drivers of the top ten provinces, a clear trend toward "innovation and quality" is evident. For example, Zhejiang, which led the top ten in growth, saw its industrial output above designated size increase by 8% year-on-year. Output from high-tech manufacturing and the digital economy core industries grew by 16.2% and 15.5%, respectively, with semiconductor and service robot production surging.

In Jiangsu, emerging industries are developing rapidly, and new consumption is growing quickly. The province's high-tech manufacturing output above designated size increased by 14.8%, and digital product manufacturing output grew by 13.5%, both significantly faster than the overall industrial average. In June, retail sales of new energy vehicles, smartphones, and wearable smart devices in Jiangsu increased by 27.9%, 90.9%, and 317.6% year-on-year, respectively.

For Anhui, which returned to the top ten, the province's industrial output above designated size grew by 12.4% year-on-year in the first half, accelerating by 1.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Output from the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 22.7%, and high-tech manufacturing output rose by 44.6%, outpacing the overall industrial average by 10.3 and 32.2 percentage points, respectively.

The finance professor explained that the top ten provinces are using technology to reshape industrial logic. Examples like Zhejiang's digital manufacturing and Anhui's new energy vehicles show a closed-loop transition from "innovation chain to industry chain to value chain." This represents a shift from factor-driven to efficiency-driven growth. By combining institutional openness with scientific innovation, these provinces are upgrading "comparative advantages" into "competitive advantages." This "innovation and quality" focus not only stabilizes the national economy but also redefines the concept of "growth poles" in regional economics, providing a model for energy transition nationwide.

Further Efforts to Boost Domestic Demand

A spokesperson from the Ministry of Commerce stated that in the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure drove GDP growth by 2.1 percentage points, remaining the primary driver. Service consumption showed strong growth, while goods consumption, though slowing, still holds significant potential for expansion.

In response, several provinces have emphasized strengthening policies to boost domestic demand, particularly consumption, in the second half of the year. Henan plans to continue its consumer goods trade-in program, offering subsidies of up to 20,000 yuan for vehicle scrapping and 15,000 yuan for replacement, as well as up to 1,500 yuan for home appliances and 500 yuan for digital products like smartphones and tablets. This initiative is expected to benefit millions of consumers.

Jiangsu stated that it will track structural changes in the consumer market, dynamically optimize the coverage and standards of consumption promotion policies, focus on improving the consumption environment, cultivate new consumption formats, and increase resident incomes. The goal is to leverage short-term policies while accelerating the release of endogenous consumption momentum to support a stable and improving economy.

Hubei plans to innovate consumption scenarios, optimize the consumption environment, enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness, and capitalize on holiday consumption peaks like summer and National Day to better unleash consumption vitality and potential.

The finance professor suggested that regions will tap into domestic demand potential in the second half, using subsidies for green and smart consumption and digitalization of the service sector to maintain consumption resilience.

Regarding future efforts to drive economic growth, the chief analyst recommended that regions focus on three main areas: "expanding effective demand, stabilizing industrial growth, and preventing and mitigating risks." Specific measures include promoting investment recovery and stabilization by optimizing investment in new infrastructure and people's livelihoods, and stimulating private investment. Second, deepening the "AI+" initiative to empower the real economy, moving AI from technological breakthroughs to large-scale commercial applications. Regions should tailor their strategies to seize opportunities in areas like intelligent agents and embodied intelligence. Third, balancing development and security by actively defusing risks in the real estate sector and managing existing debt, while implementing policies for purchasing existing housing and urban renewal to secure a safety net for stable growth.