GTHT: Margin Financing Funds Return to Inflows, Mutual Fund Issuance Accelerates

Deep News
10/27

Key Insights: Market trading activity cooled slightly during the period, with inflows into equity-focused funds and margin financing accelerating, while foreign capital saw modest outflows from A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.

**Market Pricing Trends** 1) Sentiment (Declining): Turnover ratios dipped, with average daily A-share trading volume falling to RMB 1.8 trillion. Daily limit-up stocks rose to 73.2, while the maximum consecutive漲停板count reached 7. The封板rate climbed to 78.6%, but龍虎榜listings dropped to 59. 2) Profitability (Improving): The proportion of rising stocks increased to 81.2%, with median weekly returns for all A-shares rising to 3.1%. 3) Concentration (Easing): Sector turnover concentration retreated, with only 4 industries (coal, petrochemicals) maintaining turnover ratios above the 90th percentile.

**A-Share Capital Flows** 1) Mutual Funds: Equity-focused fund issuance rose to RMB 12.15 billion, though overall fund stock allocations declined slightly. 2) Private Funds: October私募信心指數edged down, but positions remained near yearly highs (as of Oct 17). 3) Foreign Investors: Net outflows of $120 million (to Oct 22), with northbound trading share rising to the 38.7th percentile historically. 4) Corporate Activity: IPOs raised RMB 2.54 billion; private placements totaled RMB 21.15 billion, while unlocked shares amounted to RMB 48.76 billion. 5) ETFs: Passive funds swung to net outflows (RMB 14.7 billion), with trading share dropping to 6.9%. Equity ETF premiums narrowed. 6) Margin Financing: Net purchases surged to RMB 21.09 billion, though trading share fell to 11.0%. 7) Retail Investors: Alternative indicators signaled increased activity.

**Sector Allocation** Foreign and domestic capital converged on tech and cyclical sectors: - Foreign inflows led in non-ferrous metals ($47.3M) and electronics ($29.0M), while outflows hit consumer staples (-$15.3M) and transport (-$13.2M). - Margin financing favored electronics (RMB 8.23B) and communications (RMB 3.42B), with non-ferrous metals seeing RMB 1.43B outflows. - ETFs: Non-bank finance (RMB 770M) led inflows, while power equipment (RMB 4.52B) and electronics (RMB 3.24B) faced outflows.

**Global Flows** The Hang Seng Index gained 3.6%, with South Korea’s KOSPI (+5.1%) outperforming. - Southbound flows to Hong Kong rose to RMB 17.28 billion (59th percentile since 2022). - Developed markets saw $6.53B active outflows but $21.88B passive inflows. The UK (+$1.01B) and France (+$550M) led foreign inflows, while the US (-$132M) extended outflows.

**Risks**: Data measurement discrepancies; third-party sourcing inaccuracies.

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