Guotai Haitong Securities released a research report stating that on February 25, Shanghai introduced the "New Seven Measures," which encompass seven aspects including adjustments to purchase restrictions, optimization of the housing provident fund, and improvements to the property tax. It is anticipated that this comprehensive set of policies will effectively release pent-up reasonable demand, leading to a simultaneous recovery in both the primary and secondary housing markets. The firm maintains an "Overweight" rating on the real estate sector.
Looking ahead to 2026, which marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, regulatory requirements for high-quality development are expected to guide the market. Considering the significant industry-wide consolidation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the current new housing market of 8 trillion square meters possesses the capacity for purchase absorption. Attention should be paid to the pace of fiscal stimulus and the timing of the manifestation of blue-chip companies' competitive advantages.
The main views of Guotai Haitong are as follows:
The introduction of the "New Seven Measures" signifies another upgrade in policy optimization. On February 25, 2026, five departments including the Shanghai Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management Commission jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies," referred to as the "New Seven Measures." These measures cover seven areas including relaxation of purchase restrictions, housing provident fund optimization, and property tax refinements.
Regarding housing purchase restrictions, for non-Shanghai resident families or adult individuals: 1) Those who have continuously paid social security or individual income tax for one year or more face no limit on the number of homes purchased outside the Outer Ring Road, but are limited to one home inside the Outer Ring Road. 2) Those who have paid continuously for three years or more can purchase up to two homes inside the Outer Ring Road. 3) Individuals who have held a "Shanghai Residence Permit" for five years or more can purchase one home anywhere in the city.
For housing provident fund loan policies, the maximum loan amount for a family purchasing their first home has been increased from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan. Combined with policies allowing higher loan limits for multi-child families and purchases of green buildings, the maximum family loan amount can reach 3.24 million yuan. The maximum loan amount for purchasing a second home has also been raised accordingly.
Regarding property tax policy, for adult children of Shanghai resident families, property tax will be temporarily exempted when they newly purchase or replace a home, provided it is the sole residence of the adult child's family.
The new policies employ targeted measures, featuring tiered relaxations and district-specific strategies, creating a combined effect focusing on "eligibility + financing + cost." Specifically, the relaxation of purchase restrictions primarily targets non-local families or individuals, effectively absorbing rigid and upgrade demand, and significantly boosting the market inside the Outer Ring Road. Secondly, the simultaneous optimization of provident fund loan policies directly reduces purchasing costs and facilitates the core of the replacement chain, effectively lowering down payment and monthly payment pressures for families with rigid or upgrade needs. Finally, the optimization of the property tax policy represents a substantive relaxation for Shanghai resident families seeking to upgrade, ensuring that new upgrade demand can quickly transmit to both primary and secondary markets.
The firm believes this policy package will effectively release previously pent-up reasonable demand, driving a synchronized recovery in new and second-hand housing markets. Policy movements and market stabilization in Shanghai are expected to inject more confidence into the national market.
Risks include sluggish sales and industry-wide volume decline.