On September 16, this week marks a crucial period for global monetary policy as central banks from Washington to Tokyo, from London to Ottawa, are set to announce their interest rate decisions in rapid succession. A series of significant economic data releases will also follow. These events will not only directly impact monetary policies and economic trajectories of various nations but also influence asset allocation decisions for every investor. Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve may likely fire the first shot in rate cuts, while central banks in Japan, the UK, and other countries may maintain their current stance, presenting a complex picture of global macroeconomic conditions with mixed signals.
On Wednesday (September 17), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its latest interest rate decision. Markets broadly expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the federal funds rate to the 4.00%-4.25% range. This expectation stems from recent signs of cooling in the US labor market, with the Fed hoping to inject vitality into the economy through moderately accommodative monetary policy. In contrast, markets view the possibility of a 50 basis point cut as minimal, representing only a minority speculation.
Investors will closely monitor the FOMC statement and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference, attempting to capture guidance regarding future monetary policy. Markets currently expect the Fed may cut rates up to three more times this year, and Powell's wording could add more certainty or variables to these expectations. Meanwhile, the US will also release a series of significant economic data this week, including retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. These data points will provide markets with additional clues about the health of the US economy and may further influence investor judgments about the Fed's future policy direction.
Regarding gold, yesterday's early session saw a decline testing the 2,626 level before stabilizing and rising. Evening trading broke through with a significant surge near 2,685, setting a new historical high with the daily chart closing positive. Today continues to favor bullish sentiment, with daily support around 2,649 - touching this level presents a buying opportunity. Hourly support sits at 2,663, representing an ideal long position and serving as the intraday bull-bear dividing line. However, if the market strengthens, it may first rise from the early morning pullback low around 2,674.
Upside targets initially focus on yesterday's high near 2,685. Once effectively broken, there's a high probability of reaching 2,700. If news flow remains supportive, this week could see the triangle breakout's second target near 2,760, which remains hopeful.
Trading recommendations: Look for long opportunities approaching 2,663 or 2,649, with default stop-loss of 5 points. Target 2,690 with breakout potential to 2,700 and above. Other price levels will be provided during trading sessions.